Fundamental Observation
The July CPI data released on Tuesday was lower than expected, leading the market to interpret it as a sign of easing inflation pressure, which increased expectations for a rate cut in September. The dollar index continued to decline, briefly falling below 98, while non-US assets strengthened across the board, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both reaching new highs. However, the PPI released on Thursday was higher than expected, suggesting that prices may rise again in the future, causing the dollar index to quickly return above 98, and both BTC and ETH fell back.
The globally watched "Putin-Biden meeting" in Alaska on August 15 lasted only three hours and ended hastily. Although there was some communication regarding the Ukraine issue, no substantial agreement was reached. The rise in geopolitical uncertainty may strengthen the market's demand for crypto assets as a safe haven.
Technical Analysis
BTC
The weekly chart shows a long upper shadow bearish candle, breaking below the 7-day moving average support. The key short-term support level to watch is around 112K, which also corresponds to the 14-day moving average position.
On the daily chart, Thursday saw a high followed by a drop, closing with a large bearish candle accompanied by increased trading volume, indicating enhanced selling pressure. The weekend rebound was limited, and this morning it quickly fell below the 116K support.
MACD has formed a death cross, with the histogram turning negative, indicating that bearish forces are gradually gaining the upper hand. However, the fast and slow lines remain above the 0 axis, suggesting that the bears have not yet fully taken control. Overall, the short-term downside target is first at 112K; if it fails to hold, it may further drop to the 110K-107K range.
The 4-hour level shows a shrinking rebound over the weekend, and today has seen a large bearish candle with increased volume. Initially, watch for support at 114K, then focus on 113K.
ETH
Starting from the 2111 level in late June, it rose to a high of 4788, forming a standard main upward wave. The overall trend remains within an upward channel, but it is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with momentum significantly weakening.
Around 4150 is a key platform support; if it breaks, the lower channel at 3880 will serve as a secondary defense. The MACD has a high-level death cross, and the histogram has turned negative, indicating rising bearish pressure, but the fast and slow lines remain above the 0 axis, suggesting that the market has not been completely reversed in the short term.
The overall increase has reached 126%, and the probability of a significant short-term drop is low. It is expected to oscillate at high levels for profit-taking. If it can stabilize after a pullback at 4150, it may aim to challenge 4680 again. Whether a new round of market activity can be initiated still depends on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
The 4-hour level shows a small three-wave decline, forming three peaks at 4780-4680-4580. In terms of operations, look for short opportunities when rebounding to the 4360-4400 area, while paying attention to support at 4260-4220 below.
Altcoin Sector
Ethereum saw a withdrawal of 855,158 ETH from staking this Friday, setting a new historical high. The rapid accumulation of unstaking may bring selling pressure in the spot market and risks of chain liquidations, becoming an important factor in the recent ETH pullback.
Tokens related to staking have seen increased pullback after a significant rise earlier. Meanwhile, this week projects like FTN, ZRO, ZK are experiencing large unlocks, which pose risks.
The total locked value (TVL) in ETH Layer 2 has risen to $45.19 billion, mainly concentrated in projects like ARB, BASE, OP, ZK; the RWA sector's locked value has surpassed $13.418 billion. The concentration of funds and activity in these two major sectors is significant and worth closely tracking in the future.
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