Reviewing last week's market, Bitcoin initially surged due to CPI data being lower than expected, reaching an all-time high. However, the subsequent release of July's PPI, which increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeded market estimates and dampened expectations for a rate cut in September, interrupting the upward momentum.
The economic data released by the U.S. last week was higher than expected, causing the market's imagination of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cool instantly, leading to a significant blow to market confidence. The atmosphere of caution persists, and the cryptocurrency market faced selling pressure today, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum declining, while altcoins fell into a sea of red.
The next important catalyst for the market will still be the overall economic events in the U.S. The market's focus will shift to the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on August 22. If Fed Chairman Powell's remarks lean towards a dovish tone, it may reignite market risk appetite. Additionally, the continued net inflow into ETFs will serve as significant support for Bitcoin. Attention should also be paid to the U.S. initial jobless claims data to be released on August 21, which will be a key factor influencing Bitcoin's next move.
Bitcoin dipped to around $114,600 today, and as of the time of writing, it is priced at $115,053, with a daily decline of up to 2.5%, retreating nearly 7% from last week's all-time high of $124,128. Ethereum is similarly under pressure, having dropped nearly 4.3% in the past 24 hours, with a current price of $4,286. Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only LINK is rising against the trend, but its increase is less than 1%, currently priced at $24.9.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
The market is still clearly in a bearish trend. The DIF line is below the DEA line, and both lines are continuously diverging downwards, indicating that the bears are in control. The MACD green histogram is continuously expanding, showing that the downward momentum remains strong, with little sign of reversal in the short term.
From the KDJ indicator, the K value is around 24, the D value is about 41, and the J value has dropped to the negative area of -10, indicating that the market is in an oversold state. Although oversold conditions suggest a potential rebound in the short term, it is necessary to wait for the K value to break above the D value to form a golden cross signal to confirm the start of a rebound.
In terms of price movement, the current price has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is continuing towards the lower band, indicating that the bears firmly control the market. The support level at the lower band is around 113,000, which will become a key point for the short-term battle between bulls and bears. The resistance level at the upper middle band is at 118,000, and the upper band resistance is at 124,000.
From the Fibonacci retracement levels, the key level of 61.8% at 118,098 has been breached, turning this price into an important resistance level. Attention should be paid to the support strength at the 78.6% retracement level of 103,801, as well as the extreme support level at 92,800.
Overall, the mid-term trend remains bearish, and the short-term downward trend has not yet ended. It is crucial to closely monitor two key levels; if the price can regain and stabilize above 118,100, there is hope to reverse the downward trend into a sideways upward movement. Conversely, if the support at 113,000 is lost, there may be further declines towards the support area of 103,800.
In terms of operational strategy, it is advisable to maintain a cautious and observant attitude, waiting for clearer reversal signals to appear. In the short term, one can pay attention to rebound signals after overselling, but it is essential to control positions and set stop-loss orders. For the medium to long term, it is recommended to continue waiting for lower buying opportunities, focusing on the support performance near 103,800.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as valuable as providing you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish; the goal is to earn for a lifetime by learning the right mindset! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning positions in the market. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.
Written on: (2025-08-18, 20:30)
(Article by - Master Talks Coins) Disclaimer: Online publication may have delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Master Talks Coins for discussion and exchange.
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