The probability of the Binance Alpha project launching on the Binance spot market is only about 10%.

According to a report by DWF Ventures, as of June 2025, the Binance Alpha platform has launched over 190 projects, of which only 18 have successfully launched on the spot market, resulting in a conversion rate from Alpha to spot of approximately 10%.

Aside from the data, the report reveals some interesting details:

In terms of narrative: Meme coins account for 39% of Alpha projects, but the highest conversion rate from "Alpha to spot" is seen in DeFi projects.

In terms of market capitalization: The two projects with the highest market capitalization (Ondo and Virtuals) are leaders in the RWA and AI sectors, respectively.

Binance's three-tiered listing path (Alpha → Futures → Spot) is essentially a market validation process. Each step tests the project's liquidity, community activity, and actual value.

Taking @olaxbt's $AIO as an example, it has completed the first two steps:

• August 2: Launched on the Alpha market
• August 13: Launched on the futures market

Historical data shows that projects that have entered the futures market are indeed more likely to enter the spot market than those that are purely Alpha projects.

$AIO Token Structure

• Investors: 14%, no unlock at TGE, lock-up period of 12 months
• Team: 15%, no unlock at TGE, lock-up period of 12 months

From an investment perspective, $AIO currently has a circulating market cap of $18 million, which is considered reasonable. Both the team and institutional tokens are locked for a year, with selling pressure mainly coming from community airdrops and market makers.

Potential Future Benefits for $AIO

• RWA Direction: The team has a traditional finance background and is collaborating with institutions to explore stock tokenization, allowing users to trade stock tokens directly with USDC.
• AI-Powered Trading: Promoting the "agent as a service" model to expand more applications.
• MCP Space No-Code Platform: Enabling ordinary users to build AI trading agents without coding, allowing for the customization of personalized strategies.

The final thought is that, compared to other exchanges that accept all comers, Binance has established a relatively complete project incubation and screening mechanism through its Alpha platform. For $AIO, the probability of launching on the Binance spot market is much greater than 10%. This is not only because it has passed the first two rounds of validation but also due to its actual application potential under the dual narrative of RWA + AI, as well as its healthy token economics design.

DYOR

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