This article is reprinted with permission from "Hua Li Hua Wai," and the copyright belongs to the original author.

Let's briefly discuss the market. The market has recently entered a phase of range-bound fluctuations. Regarding BTC, although the indicators are bearish and the MACD seems to be about to cross again, the $112,000 level is a short-term support. As long as this level is not broken, it is likely to continue fluctuating for a while, as shown in the figure below.

As for ETH, it has risen quite rapidly recently. Just a few days ago, it was close to its historical high, but it has now entered a correction phase and is currently in a range-bound market. As shown in the figure below. However, from the indicators, it may continue to fluctuate for a while. In extreme cases, it cannot be ruled out that it will revisit the $3600 - $4000 area, but the medium-term trend remains bullish. There is a high probability that it will break the historical high this year and attempt to reach the $5000 mark.

Of course, regarding the market trends, different people may have different views or references, and any judgment can only serve as an aid. The above is merely our own opinion; you can have your own judgment and make decisions that suit your risk preferences.

Based on historical experience, the most frenzied moments in the market often occur in the later stages of a cyclical period, and we seem to be in such a phase now. However, compared to previous bull market cycles, the risk of hitting a peak at any moment is significantly higher now.

When the market is in an upward trend, it may seem easy to make money on the surface, but actually holding onto those profits is quite difficult. Although many people are aware that no one can accurately predict when the market will reach its peak, human nature leads most to hope they can sell at the peak in the later stages of a bull market.

Recently, I've noticed many people still shouting: "This time is different!"

But to be honest, shouting such slogans is not very meaningful. Each cycle is different; we neither need to rigidly adhere to past patterns nor should we always hold onto new fantasies about the market.

A more reasonable approach is to always be prepared and to set a Plan B for yourself. For example: if the current position is indeed the peak, are you satisfied with the profits you have already made?

It seems that many people are waiting for a bull market like those in 2017 and 2021. So the question arises: what if we skip the traditional ending phase of a bull market and instead form a temporary peak before directly entering a bear market (mini bear market)? How would you respond?

More and more people are starting to believe in the supercycle theory of bull markets. More celebrities and big names are promoting cryptocurrencies, and more people are searching for and discussing cryptocurrencies… as shown in the figure below.

Bitcoin continues to break historical highs, and Ethereum is close to its historical high… We always say that opportunity and risk coexist, so we should not embrace risk as we did at the beginning of the cycle. Instead, we should gradually take profits in batches from now on, which will make your mindset and position more flexible, rather than being completely crushed when a collapse suddenly occurs.

Let's take a simple comparison with Bitcoin's performance during the 2021 bull market:

For example, from a time perspective, the period from the peak in 2017 to the peak in 2021 lasted about 1435 days, while from the peak in 2021 to now, about 1373 days have passed. Without considering the supercycle, just from a phase (4-5 year) cycle perspective, it seems there are still 2-3 months left. Even if you want to rigidly adhere to past patterns, now should be the time to start taking profits in batches.

Additionally, from the perspective of the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins, in previous bull markets, Bitcoin's dominance would only decline in the final stages, after which altcoins would begin to rise. In the past few weeks, we seem to be at the beginning of this trend. Although the scale of performance is quite different from previous bull markets, the trend direction seems unchanged, with Ethereum and some mainstream coins beginning to lead this trend again.

Many people believe that we should not compare history with the present, but history is sometimes not just data; it is also a reflection of human nature. Although many believe that the current market sentiment is insufficient to support a market peak and that the crypto market will rise significantly and last longer, this cycle will completely break the four-year cycle pattern. However, so far, we see that the overall trend of the market remains consistent. Bitcoin has entered a second wave of creating historical highs, its dominance is declining, Ethereum continues to look bullish and is preparing to create historical highs, and many altcoins are changing in line with the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If the current overall momentum can be sustained, then after experiencing some effective adjustments and leverage clearing, by the end of this year, Ethereum's price will not only break new highs but may also approach $6000. At that time, some liquidity may quickly shift to other mainstream altcoins and rapidly into some small-cap coins. This period in the altcoin market will appear to be the most rewarding but also the riskiest.

From historical patterns and probabilities, we also believe that this cycle has not yet peaked, but theoretically, it seems to be close to a temporary peak. We will not get entangled in whether the so-called four-year cycle pattern is effective, nor will we dwell on whether the market will enter a supercycle next. We lean towards the idea mentioned above: after forming a temporary peak, the market may directly enter a bear market (mini bear market), repeating this process. However, from a longer-term perspective (such as the next 10 or 20 years), we still believe that the overall crypto market is positive and bullish.

Many people lament that short-term trading is the hardest, while long-term trading is easier. However, from our own experience, short-term trading is difficult, but long-term trading is actually harder, not easier. The longer the cycle, the greater the likelihood of losses. The market always likes to create various obvious and attractive entry points for people but will never leave them with easily and accurately predictable exit points.

What is the most comfortable trading state?

In simple terms, it is a trading method that is somewhat contrary to human nature. While maintaining flexible positions, when the market is quiet, you can take a closer look and buy in batches. When the market performs strongly and sentiment is high, you can sell in batches. During other times, you should eat, drink, and do whatever you want.

What are bull and bear markets?

Recently, some people have been messaging me asking: how much longer does this bull market have left? When will the new bear market start? In fact, this question varies from person to person. You might think that Bitcoin breaking below the MA200 is a bear market, while I might think that Bitcoin's drop from its high at the beginning of this year to its low in April is a bear market, and so on. Theoretically, different people will have different definitions of bull and bear markets based on their understanding of time dimensions, price dimensions, and market sentiment dimensions. However, the reality is that most people are completely trapped by the four-year cycle (historical pattern) or supercycle rhetoric, neglecting their own investment framework.

In short, every cycle is different, but human nature never changes. The financial market itself is a game of probabilities. The higher the price rises, the harder it becomes for people to sell, and many will even FOMO into buying. If you are not prepared to exit during the best-performing periods of the market, you are voluntarily becoming someone else's liquidity.

In other words, selling in batches during a strong upward trend is the only way for ordinary retail investors to avoid being trapped, even if prices may continue to rise. Your batch selling strategy can yield good returns, and you can even keep the last 10% of your position to gamble on the perfect peak.

Whether it's a short-term plan, a medium-term plan, or a long-term plan, if you still don't have any corresponding investment framework (including profit-taking strategies), our advice is to start formulating one now and stick to your plan. Plan your trades, trade your plan, and do not wait for the market to suddenly reverse, continuing to bear the psychological burden of being cut off or losing everything.

Of course, we do not provide any trading guidance on specific buying and selling; you can make decisions that suit your risk preferences. To put it bluntly, if you are focused on short- to medium-term opportunities, you can seize the phase-out opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year. If you have a long-term perspective, you can continue to ignore any short-term fluctuations and maintain enough patience. For example, if you firmly believe that Bitcoin can reach at least $300,000 and Ethereum can reach at least $15,000 by 2029, and you are not concerned about any price fluctuations during this period, that's great. You can continue to buy more Bitcoin or Ethereum to accumulate.

The market cannot allow most people to make money; instead, it will do everything possible to deceive as many people as possible. Therefore, having your own investment framework is crucial for staying ahead of other investors in this market.

Related: All Roads Lead to Inflation: Whether the Federal Reserve Cuts Rates or Not, Bitcoin (BTC) May Benefit

Original article: “How Much Longer Does the Bull Market Have? When Should You Take Profits?”

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