Key Points:
Ethereum futures premiums and derivatives remain stable, reflecting resilience despite recent price declines.
On-chain metrics highlight Ethereum's dominance in fees and TVL, supporting stronger long-term recovery potential.
Ethereum (ETH) appears to have found support around $4,070 on Wednesday, following a sharp 15.1% drop over six days. This move wiped out $817 million in bullish leveraged positions but failed to trigger a widespread bearish shift. Instead, Ethereum derivatives show that traders are unfazed by additional downside risks, suggesting that $4,700 is still within reach.
The annualized futures premium for Ethereum has remained above the neutral 5% threshold during the decline, indicating confidence. Monthly futures typically trade higher than spot market prices to reflect longer settlement periods, but the last meaningful bullish signal for this metric appeared in January. Even with Ethereum's 100% rise between July 1 and August 13, it has not fully restored traders' optimism.
This hesitation partly stems from macroeconomic uncertainty. U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while economic growth shows uneven signals. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, amid concerns that AI stocks may be overvalued.
CNBC reported that traders reduced positions ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Friday. "If Powell's wording is more hawkish, it could further pressure tech stocks," noted BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist Carol Schleif. Meanwhile, retailer Target's weak earnings highlighted profitability pressures.
Contrary to expectations, Ethereum options show a neutral stance, with balanced demand for both downside and upside protection. The current 4% reading indicates a balance between bearish (sell) and bullish (buy) interest. However, the lack of stronger optimism after Ethereum briefly traded above $4,700 is somewhat concerning, as it suggests hesitation about setting new highs.
On-chain activity paints a more constructive picture. According to DefiLlama, Ethereum continues to expand its dominance over competitors, capturing about 60% of the total market locked value (TVL). More importantly, network fees are rising, reflecting stronger demand for block space, which supports Ethereum's price recovery.
Ethereum's 7-day fees climbed to $11.2 million on Wednesday, a 38% increase from the previous week. In contrast, Solana's fees rose only 3%, while BNB Chain's revenue declined by 3%. This disparity highlights Ethereum's dominance in decentralized exchange volumes, which reached $129.7 billion over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama.
While Ethereum derivatives still show a cautious attitude, this stance reflects a broader crypto market pullback rather than Ethereum's fundamentals. Traders seem concerned that U.S. import tariffs could impact global growth, prompting investors to lean towards risk aversion.
Ultimately, Ethereum's path back to $4,700 depends on a decrease in investor fears about the economy. However, derivatives data shows that professional traders remain calm, with no signs of panic even after a retest at $4,100, supporting the view that Ethereum's recovery is more solid than many initially assumed.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) drops nearly $112,000 as investors await Powell's speech
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Futures Data Reflects Traders' Fear, While On-Chain Data Points to a Price Recovery”
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