Event Review 🔥

Recently, the Bitcoin market experienced a round of intense fluctuations. Just before Powell's speech, starting at 21:32, a series of institutional fund movements and market prediction news emerged, injecting strong rebound momentum into the market. Analysts in the market warned of a "Nice pre‑Powell dip in Bitcoin," while first-time Bitcoin buyers accumulated 50,000 BTC. Subsequently, large amounts of BTC flowed from anonymous wallets to major exchanges, indicating that institutions were confident about the upcoming dovish policies. Following this, market sentiment surged, leading to a rapid increase in Bitcoin prices as funds were replenished, leveraged positions were cleared, and a chain reaction of short liquidations occurred.

Timeline ⏰

• 21:32: The market reported "pre‑Powell dip" information, indicating a brief pullback in Bitcoin before Powell's speech, laying the groundwork for the subsequent rebound.
• 21:38: First-time Bitcoin buyers accumulated 50,000 BTC, suggesting new funds quietly entered the market.
• 21:47: Large amounts of BTC flowed from anonymous wallets to major exchanges, showing that institutional funds were accelerating their positions.
• 21:50: Analysts emphasized that "the most important Fed speech is coming," triggering market expectations for easing signals.
• 22:00: The market officially rebounded—within 101 minutes, Bitcoin surged from approximately $112,414 to $116,940, an increase of 4.03%.
• 22:04: The internal market sentiment "Bitcoin knew. Bitcoin always knows." further reinforced confidence in support levels.
• 22:00 to 23:45: Bitcoin prices continued to rise, climbing from $112,434 to $117,267, with an overall increase of 4.30%.
• 00:00: The latest trading price was approximately $116,479, marking a preliminary snapshot of the end of this round of intense fluctuations.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The recent market fluctuations were mainly driven by two factors:

1. Shift in Macroeconomic Policy Expectations
   Ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, the Federal Reserve repeatedly signaled interest rate cuts, leading the market to price in a potential reduction of 25 basis points or more. This easing expectation significantly boosted buying in risk assets, making Bitcoin and other crypto assets the focus of capital inflows.

2. Intense Adjustments in Institutional Funds and Leverage Positions
   Large institutional orders and major funds frequently entered and exited the market, accompanied by rapid liquidation of short positions at key support levels, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations. The intense adjustments in leveraged funds caused the market to surge rapidly in a short period, amplifying short-term volatility due to the dramatic increase in capital flow and trading volume.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the [BTC/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data, the technical aspects have the following characteristics:

• Price Movement and Moving Average Layout
• The price is currently running along the upper Bollinger Band and is above MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, as well as EMA5/10/20/50/120, indicating a bullish arrangement of moving averages and a strong upward trend.
• The slope of EMA20 is steep and upward (approximately 1.00%), indicating strong short-term upward momentum.
• Oscillation Indicators and Overbought Warnings
• The KDJ indicator shows that it is currently in the overbought area, with the J indicator extremely overbought, suggesting a risk of local pullback; RSI is also in an overbought state, indicating that short-term upward movement may need to consolidate.
• The TD price reversal signal shows early bearish signs, indicating that the market may experience a technical pullback under overbought conditions.
• Trading Volume Performance
• In the recent period, trading volume surged by 55.06%, with the 10-day and 20-day average trading volumes increasing by 240.39% and 149.20%, respectively. This indicates extremely high market trading activity and sustained participation from major funds.
• Liquidations and Large Transactions
• In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $6 million, with short positions accounting for 64%. Meanwhile, net inflows from major funds reached $100 million, showing that market capital movements are highly concentrated.

Market Outlook 🚀

Looking ahead, the Bitcoin market remains full of uncertainty:

• Impact of Macroeconomic Environment
  After Powell's speech, if the Federal Reserve further confirms expectations for interest rate cuts, it may continue to drive the market upward. However, in the short term, due to technical indicators being overbought, some investors may choose to take profits, leading to price adjustments.
• Market Sentiment and Institutional Movements
  Continuous adjustments of large institutional funds and leverage positions may trigger fluctuations between key support and resistance levels. Investors should pay attention to support around $112,000 and resistance in the $117,000 range, exercising caution in their strategies and strict risk control.
• Trading Strategy Recommendations
  Although the current market is strong, the risk of pullbacks still exists. For investors optimistic about the medium to long-term trend, it is advisable to accumulate positions during price fluctuations while employing risk hedging strategies; short-term traders should pay attention to building positions in batches and setting reasonable stop-losses to prevent a chain reaction of liquidations due to sudden market changes.

Overall, driven by macroeconomic easing expectations, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trend in the future, but the overbought signals on the technical front suggest that some adjustments may occur in the short term. Market participants should pay attention to upcoming policy announcements and changes in data, adjusting their strategies in a timely manner to respond to the risks and opportunities brought by this round of intense fluctuations.

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