Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Hao Fangzhou

I finally met the living Arthur Hayes!

The crypto world is no stranger to this name. As the co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes is not only a pioneer representative of industry builders but also a high-frequency, bold KOL in market predictions, without exception. He not only has a theoretical background in economics from Wharton School but also has years of practical trading experience at Deutsche Bank and Citibank before diving into the crypto space.

On August 22, Odaily Planet Daily just compiled Arthur Hayes' latest extensive interview.

According to his latest script: Powell insists on not lowering interest rates, while Trump seeks other ways to "squeeze out liquidity"; a bull market is inevitable, and all financial assets linked to Trump's policies will benefit; the crypto market will experience fluctuations in the fall, and buying on dips is a good opportunity to increase positions; ETH will open up upward space after breaking new highs, potentially reaching $10,000 to $20,000 in the coming years; crypto treasury companies are not so easy to collapse; focus on altcoins like ENA and HYPE…

You see, whether in external interviews or interactions on X account, Arthur Hayes always clearly presents his views and arguments, unafraid to contradict himself and adjust flexibly. His long-form writings (BitMEX Blog) are often sought after by various media for their storytelling and metaphorical richness.

On August 24, thanks to our friendly media CoinPost's introduction, Odaily Planet Daily had the honor of interviewing Arthur Hayes just before the official start of WebX in Tokyo.

Given that Arthur often discusses macro analysis and price predictions, this conversation also touched on some topics that are not commonly seen in the "market," such as his views on WLFI (which will start trading and initial claims on September 1), YZY (the new Memecoin released by Kanye the day before yesterday), gold, AI, and longevity technology, personal idols, daily life rhythms, and hobbies. Here’s the interview organized for you, enjoy~

• Odaily Planet Daily: Hi, Arthur, it's an honor to chat face-to-face. I'm a big fan of yours; I bought ENA at 0.8 and sold at 0.3 (Note: ENA's current price is 0.7 USDT), so thank you!

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, nice.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Let's start with macro—Powell. A couple of days ago, you said he wouldn't "yield" to lower interest rates, but it seems there’s been a change (Reference reading: “Powell hints at rate cuts, ETH breaks new highs, how will the market perform?”). So, what’s your latest market prediction?

Arthur Hayes: Powell has loosened up this time, saying he will "provide money" to help Trump achieve his economic goals. So I believe that the pace of dollar issuance will accelerate, and the Federal Reserve will align more with Trump's ideas. Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Recently, most altcoins have not risen as much as ETH. When will the altcoin season come? Is holding ETH a better option for buying altcoins?

Arthur Hayes: There is no altcoin season at all. Over the past 18 months, only HyperLiquid has performed well. Altcoins are undergoing judgment; their common issues are high FDV, low circulation, and capital being highly controlled. These projects have neither data nor users, so the community is punishing them and no longer holding.

• _Odaily Planet Daily: Recently, there’s another variable in the market: WLFI has officially announced it will launch on September 1. What do you think about the pre-launch valuation of this token (Background: _Hyperliquid has launched WLFI-USD pre-issue contracts)? Will the market be drained because of WLFI's launch?

Arthur Hayes: I haven't looked at its valuation at all. To be honest, I don't really know what this project is about; is it a hedge fund or a Dapp store? I haven't paid attention and don't care. If we're talking about its impact on the crypto market, Trump's children have the decision-making power to allocate WLFI tokens to certain DeFi projects, but I won't say more since I haven't investigated.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Do you have a research team? With the rapid changes in the global macro economy, how do you prioritize the massive amount of information?

Arthur Hayes: I do have a team that focuses on early-stage projects. If we encounter good projects, we will sign on as advisors. I mainly handle liquidity trading, focusing on macro variables like interest rate adjustments and inflation rates. Additionally, I invest in some projects I personally like; they usually have rapid user growth, can make money, and use the profits to buy back tokens. Our team looks for projects with these characteristics; they may not yield a thousandfold return, but at least they won't rug pull tomorrow.

Arthur Hayes' X cover background

• Odaily Planet Daily: What do you think about Kanye's YZY? Does it not meet your expectations?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, YZY, hahaha, I haven't had enough fun with it. It's different; YZY is a Memecoin, and I treat it like a lottery. Most Memecoins end up at zero, so it's just for fun.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Your mindset is good, haha. What is your "first principle" when acquiring information?

Arthur Hayes: I only care about liquidity; that's my primary perspective when looking at investment products. Crypto liquidity is expanding, BTC is the best and safest; I do have some altcoins, but overall I spend very little energy on them.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Do you have any special channels for information?

Arthur Hayes: No.

• Odaily Planet Daily: What about communication with rule-makers? Is there a communication channel?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, I'm only famous in Crypto, but I'm not in the "core circle" of information; I still read other people's research reports.

• Odaily Planet Daily: In the industry, do you have friends to discuss projects or viewpoints with?

Arthur Hayes: Not really, mainly I hang out with my team, focusing on macro variables—liquidity expansion, in a bull market, we go all in; when the situation is bad, we pull our chips off the table. Isn’t that trend trading?

• Odaily Planet Daily: Who is your investment idol?

Arthur Hayes: (thought for a long time) Um, probably Stanley Druckenmiller. (Note: He managed funds for Soros from 1988 to 2000 and was also the former chairman and president of Duquesne Capital, which had over $12 billion in assets when it closed after 10 years; more details can be found on his Wikipedia.)

• Odaily Planet Daily: What about your position composition? Besides the wallets we often "chain stalk," can you share a bit?

Arthur Hayes: BTC - 60%, ETH - 20%, altcoins - 20%.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Where do you manage your coins?

Arthur Hayes: I don't do lending; I use Ethena to stake USDe. It's hard to say whether other protocols have healthy lending; I don't want to take risks.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Outside of coins, what do you invest in?

Arthur Hayes: I bought a lot of gold.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Wait, you mean physical gold, like bars? Is it stored in Switzerland?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, yes, gold bars, where? Somewhere in the world.

• Odaily Planet Daily: That's cool. I heard you recently invested in a longevity tech company focused on stem cell injections (according to Bloomberg sources); can you share more about that?

Arthur Hayes: Indeed, I care a lot about healthy living and improving the quality of life. Humans spend a lot of energy trying to crack the secrets of aging and how to reverse it. Imagine the future; I will enjoy (life) to the fullest.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Beyond health, what are your thoughts on the future of human life? Will AI take over everything by 2050? Will you no longer need to invest or trade?

Arthur Hayes: People still haven't figured out what kind of life they want to live. I haven't figured it out either.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Since we're talking about enjoying life, do you have any travel plans recently?

Arthur Hayes: It's summer, so I'm traveling around, getting in shape for the upcoming ski season, heading to the snowfields in Hokkaido this winter.

• Odaily Planet Daily: I just came from Sapporo! I went to RSR (rock music festival) to see Shiina Ringo; it's cooler than Tokyo.

Arthur Hayes: OK, I really haven't been in the summer.

• Odaily Planet Daily: What is your daily life rhythm like?

Arthur Hayes: I exercise for 3 hours every day, read books—novels, finance—whatever I'm interested in, I read. I make a few hours of phone calls each week; I don't need to take care of my elders regularly; I just show up when needed.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Sounds pretty healthy. This time in Japan, do you have any plans or tasks? By the way, every time you attend a conference, besides outputting, what kind of input do you look forward to?

Arthur Hayes: This time I'm staying very briefly; I’ll give a speech tomorrow and then leave, and I haven't scheduled any meetings with Japanese institutions or projects. I have some thoughts to express about stablecoins, and I’ll see the audience's reaction after my speech tomorrow.

• Odaily Planet Daily: What are your views on the yen and Hong Kong dollar stablecoins?

Arthur Hayes: To be honest, not very useful. The fiat currency and banking systems in Japan and Hong Kong are functioning well, so stablecoins are not really needed. Dollar stablecoins are a necessity because people in other regions really need them.

• Odaily Planet Daily: Thank you for sharing~ Good luck tomorrow.

Arthur Hayes: Thank you, enjoy the conference!

WebX (official website) will be held in Tokyo on August 25 and 26, and Odaily Planet Daily will be tracking and reporting on the exciting content in real-time in collaboration with the organizer CoinPost (official X), so stay tuned.

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