The price of Ethereum has risen by 25% since the beginning of August, but historical data suggests that this cryptocurrency may lose momentum in September.
With billions of dollars flowing into spot Ethereum ETFs and treasury companies, only time will tell if Ethereum (ETH) will perform differently this year.
Cryptocurrency trader CryptoGoos posted on the X platform on Friday, stating, "ETH's seasonal performance in September during halving years is typically negative. Will this time be different?"
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,759, up about $952 from the opening price of $3,807 on August 1. On Friday, this crypto asset broke through a new high of $4,867 after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Powell hinted at a possible rate cut next month, which many in the cryptocurrency market view as a potential bullish catalyst.
However, historical data suggests caution with Ethereum, as per CoinGlass data, Ethereum has only recorded gains in August three times since 2016, each time followed by a decline in September.
In 2017, Ethereum surged 92.86% in August, followed by a drop of 21.65% the next month.
This pattern repeated in 2020, with a 25.32% increase in August, followed by a 17.08% pullback in September. In 2021, Ethereum rose 35.62% in August, then fell 12.55% in September.
Interestingly, despite losses in September 2016 and 2020, Ethereum recorded gains in the following three months in both years.
However, this September may be different from previous years due to the presence of spot Ethereum ETFs and Ethereum treasury companies, which were not active during the August rallies in the past.
On August 11, as cryptocurrency prices soared above $4,300, companies holding cryptocurrency treasuries had a total value of Ethereum exceeding $13 billion.
On Saturday, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham reported that BitMine Chairman Tom Lee purchased an additional $45 million worth of Ethereum for the company, bringing BitMine's total holdings to $7 billion.
Meanwhile, according to Farside data, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $2.79 billion in net inflows in August, while spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw about $1.2 billion in net outflows during the same period.
Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, posted on Saturday that there has been a "significant shift" in inflows between spot Ethereum ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
At the same time, Bitcoin's dominance, which measures its overall market share, has decreased by 5.88% to 58.19% over the past 30 days, a trend many market participants attribute to capital rotating into the broader cryptocurrency market outside of BTC.
Related: Q3 Bitcoin (BTC) Valuation Report: Three Major Drivers Pushing Upwards, Institutions Predict Target Price of $190,000
Original: “Historical Data Shows Ethereum (ETH) August Rally May Lead to September Downtrend”
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