David Bailey, an entrepreneur and Bitcoin advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, stated that in the context of growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency market, there will not be another Bitcoin bear market in the coming years.

However, the four-year cycle theory holds an opposing view. Cryptocurrency analysts told Cointelegraph that there are several resistance factors that could drag down the market.

Bailey posted on the X platform on Saturday, stating, "This is the first time we are seeing real institutional buying."

"Every sovereign nation, bank, insurance company, corporation, pension fund, etc., will hold Bitcoin. This process has seriously begun, but we haven't even captured 0.01% of the total addressable market (TAM). We will go higher. Dream big," he added.

He mentioned that early institutional interest was merely "anomalies of marginal bets."

Bailey is the founder of Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., and served as an advisor during President Trump's campaign, being considered a key figure in the president's pivot towards Bitcoin.

Over the past two years, institutions have steadily gained exposure to cryptocurrencies through investment tools like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and by establishing cryptocurrency treasuries, with total holdings soaring to over $100 billion, primarily composed of Bitcoin (BTC).

A June report from venture capital firm Breed indicated that few of these treasury companies are likely to survive long-term, which could trigger the next cryptocurrency bear market.

CK Zheng, co-founder and chief investment officer of ZX Squared Capital, told Cointelegraph in an interview that cryptocurrencies remain highly correlated with the stock market; if the stock market slows into a bear market, "cryptocurrencies will follow."

Earlier this year, the stock market nearly slipped into a bear market, but according to Zheng, it rebounded, and several developments since then have reduced the likelihood of a repeat.

"The question is whether a bear market will occur for the remainder of this year. It's an interesting discussion, but my personal view is that it's unlikely, especially after the Federal Reserve's pivot to rate cuts and Jerome Powell's speech last Friday," he said.

Meanwhile, Pav Hundal, chief market analyst at Australian cryptocurrency broker Swyftx, stated that the market has been in a risk-on state, supporting a rotation towards high-momentum assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).

Nevertheless, he expects to see a rotation back to fixed-income instruments at some point.

"The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is upward, but that doesn't mean a bear market is years away. Macro shocks often come when you least expect them. My suspicion is that we will continue to see what we are seeing now, which is that the price volatility of each cycle is decreasing," Hundal said.

The last bear market was in 2022, and before that, it was in 2018. In both cases, a booming bull market preceded the crash.

Ryan McMillin, co-founder and chief investment officer of Australian cryptocurrency investment management firm Merkle Tree Capital, told Cointelegraph that the current fundamentals point to a peak around the second quarter of 2026, followed by "a relatively mild bear market in mid-2026 if global liquidity reverses at that time."

"Debt-driven Bitcoin purchases' leverage unwinding or regulatory shocks could trigger a downturn," he said.

McMillin noted that it is possible there may not be a bear market, "similar to gold after the launch of ETFs in the early 2000s, as that asset was financialized and rose for eight consecutive years."

Another factor is the bull market preceding any bear market; without a parabolic bull market, there won't be a deep and sustained bear market.

"So far, the rise in this cycle has been accompanied by a consolidation period, leverage has been reset, and the bull market continues. If this structure persists, then there won't be a bear market; there will be periodic adjustments, which are great buying opportunities," McMillin added.

Related: Santiment: Fed rate hike discussions heating up could be a dangerous signal for cryptocurrencies

Original article: “Trump Crypto Advisor David Bailey: The Next Bitcoin (BTC) Bear Market May Be Years Away”

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