Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. It has been almost a month since the last article, but my operations have not stopped. The adjustment for Auntie’s pullback around 3500 has seen positions near 4500 cleared out. Although I didn’t hit the historical high, it’s enough to capture the market that belongs to me. The previous expectation for Auntie was to see a peak around 5150. Today, I will briefly share my views on the subsequent bull and bear trends, for reference only, not for short-term guidance.

First, let’s talk about the major news this year regarding interest rate cuts. Last Friday, during the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Old Powell's dovish speech hinted at a possible rate cut in September, which has increased market expectations for a rate cut. This was quickly reflected in the market, with Auntie rising over 600 dollars within four hours. Financial markets are all about speculating on expectations; the actual implementation of a rate cut may not be as friendly to the bulls.

Since we are discussing the bull and bear trends today, we cannot avoid historical trends and cyclical judgments. Today is August 25th, and according to the last bull-bear transition, the peak for Bitcoin is expected around November of the following year after a six-month reduction, followed by a bear market. Therefore, there is a probability that we will see a peak this November, entering a bear market in 2026. This is just a thought based on historical cycles; after all, history tends to be remarkably similar but does not simply repeat itself. We can use this as a reference, but we also need to consider various factors such as news, sentiment, and technical analysis.

There is about a week left for the monthly closing of Bitcoin. We should pay more attention to the monthly closing situation. If it maintains its current shape until the close, I am more inclined to believe that a top is about to appear. If the August monthly line maintains its current shape, then we should be cautious of a significant top around 131000 next month. This is just my personal estimate. Writing this article at this point is merely my opinion. During the downturn adjustment in February-March this year, I continuously updated articles and emphasized that as long as my defined bull-bear boundary was not broken, I would continue to be bullish, and the market performed as expected. You might think today’s article is a bit alarmist; while we cannot completely rely on historical patterns, we must also respect historical cycles.

The weekly level for Bitcoin has completed the five waves I mentioned in my previous article. As for whether it will pull back or make a new high before pulling back, we need to observe as we go, as trends require more time to confirm than short-term movements. We should also look at the support levels step by step, starting with the 105000 level, then the 100000 round number, and finally the 90000 level. You might think that even if we see a peak in November, it’s still early. Of course, you can think that way. Also, if you want me to predict the bottom of the bear market, it’s still too early to say. One thought to consider is that the peak of the last bull market was around 19000, the bottom of the last bear market was around 15000, and the peak of the last bull market was around 69000. What will the bottom of the next bear market be? That’s all I can say. The above are all personal guesses; friends who find this useful can take it as a reference.

That’s it for now. In the next article, I will resume updating Auntie’s short-term strategies and thoughts.

This advice is for reference only. Please manage your risk when entering the market, and control your profit and stop-loss spaces accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we’ll see you next time. I wish everyone success in their trading and smooth sailing in the crypto world! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today’s brief update ends here. For more real-time advice on Auntie, find Gege.

Written by: I am trader Gege, a friend willing to help you rise again.

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