Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ethan (@ethanzhangweb3)_

If the heat of the prediction market in 2024 is mainly driven by the U.S. elections and expectations of Polymarket airdrops, then by 2025, the focus of the track has quietly shifted.

This year's story is no longer a carnival driven by a single event, but more like a deep reconstruction: the form, entry points, and ecological relationships of prediction markets are being redefined.

On one hand, compliance and mainstreaming are accelerating. Kalshi has obtained compliance licenses in all 50 states through CFTC regulation and, with the help of its partnership with Robinhood, is bringing prediction trading to a broader user base; on the other hand, social native integration is becoming a new trend. Projects like Myriad and Flipr are embedding prediction markets directly into social media and information streams, making "betting" a natural part of content interaction.

At the same time, the battle for on-chain efficiency is intensifying. Limitless is reshaping the liquidity experience on the Base chain through a CLOB model, while Drift has launched BET on Solana, connecting prediction markets with high-leverage derivatives trading. The role of prediction markets is evolving from "speculative tools" to "information pricing arenas."

Odaily Planet Daily will focus on five rapidly rising prediction market projects in this article, analyzing their gameplay, positioning, and potential opportunities.

Kalshi: A Model of Compliant Prediction Markets in the U.S.

While on-chain products remain a gray area, Kalshi has chosen a nearly opposite path. As the first prediction market platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Kalshi has legalized "event contracts": whether it's political elections, sports events, or tech company IPOs, users can directly trade "yes/no" outcomes.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi aims to build a compliant bridge between traditional finance and real-world events. In October 2024, a federal court ruled that it was allowed to launch the first regulated election market in the U.S., with a single market trading limit of up to $100 million, further solidifying Kalshi's regulatory status.

In terms of product expansion, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood in August this year to embed NFL and college football prediction markets into the Robinhood App, allowing prediction trading to reach mainstream investors for the first time. Meanwhile, Kalshi is also exploring AI-assisted predictions: collaborating with xAI to introduce the Grok system, generating probability references through data analysis and news dynamics.

On the capital side, Kalshi is backed by institutions such as Sequoia, Charles Schwab, and Y Combinator. Although some states still impose restrictions on sports prediction contracts, Kalshi has broken through some regulatory barriers through litigation, demonstrating its determination to continuously promote the compliance of prediction markets.

How to Participate in Kalshi (Robinhood Entry):

1. Open the Robinhood App;
2. Search for "NFL Predictions" or "College Football";
3. Select the event you want to predict, such as "Will a certain team win?";
4. Enter the betting amount and confirm to complete the order.

MyriadMarkets: An Attempt at Social Native Embedded Predictions

Myriad Markets is a decentralized prediction market protocol aimed at providing a platform for users of open networks to predict real-world events, news, and articles. The project began construction in March 2024, but the team behind it has been deeply involved in the prediction market field since 2021, aiming to seamlessly integrate prediction functions into the content users consume daily through partnerships with media platforms like Decrypt and Rug Radio.

Unlike Kalshi's compliance path, Myriad Markets is taking a decentralized + embedded approach. The project is incubated by the DASTAN team (the parent company of Decrypt Media), with the core idea of embedding prediction markets directly into information streams, allowing prediction behavior to occur almost simultaneously with content consumption.

Through the official Chrome extension, users will see prediction entry points next to relevant paragraphs or titles while reading news, scrolling through social media, or visiting partner websites, allowing them to place bets with just one click. For example, below a report on the U.S. elections, the extension will automatically generate a prediction market for "Will Trump win the next debate?", with prices updated in real-time according to market dynamics.

Myriad's core functions are not limited to politics or sports but also cover cryptocurrency trends (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), global economics, cultural events, and diverse themes like entertainment and esports. Users can not only passively browse but also participate in discussions through predictions, influence public opinion, and earn rewards in the process.

Technically, Myriad combines AbstractChain and Linea, supporting direct betting through MetaMask wallets and accumulating XP incentives within the collaborative ecosystem.

Myriad supports two prediction modes:

• Points Markets: Bet using points, which can be exchanged for tokens;
• USDC Markets: Bet using real funds, with prices dynamically adjusted by AMM.

How to Experience MyriadMarkets:

1. Install the Myriad Official Chrome Extension;
2. Log in or connect your Web 3 wallet;
3. While browsing content on news pages or X, click on the automatically generated prediction entry;
4. Choose Yes/No options, enter points or USDC amounts, and place your order;
5. Actively complete "challenge tasks" to earn more points, which can be exchanged for MYRIAD tokens in the future.

Drift—BET: Expanding Derivatives from Perpetual Contracts to Prediction Markets

Drift Protocol is one of the oldest and largest decentralized derivatives platforms within the Solana ecosystem. Since its launch in 2021, the project has opened the market with highly capital-efficient perpetual contracts and significantly improved liquidity and trading efficiency through the introduction of Just-In-Time (JIT) liquidity and passive liquidity pools in its V2 upgrade in 2022. Drift's unique value lies in its cross-margin model, allowing users to flexibly participate in multi-market trading under a single margin account, with some contracts supporting up to 50x leverage while maintaining low slippage and fees.

In August of this year, Drift launched a new prediction market feature called BET (Bullish on Everything on Drift), attempting to deeply integrate prediction markets with derivatives infrastructure. Unlike most independent prediction platforms, BET is not a standalone application but is directly embedded in Drift's derivatives trading interface. Users' margin accounts opened on Drift can be used not only for perpetual contract trading but also directly as collateral for prediction markets, achieving capital sharing between derivatives and prediction markets. This model allows a single margin deposit to cover multiple types of trades, dynamically balancing profits and risks within the same capital pool, significantly enhancing capital utilization efficiency.

BET adopts an AMM pricing model, initially focusing on high-interest topics such as the U.S. elections ("Will Trump win the next debate?" "Will Harris's approval rating exceed 45%?"), cryptocurrency price trends, and macroeconomic data. According to Solana Floor data, in its first week of launch, BET's total locked volume exceeded $3 million, indicating strong community interest in this new gameplay.

How to Experience Drift BET:

1. Visit the Drift official website;
2. Connect your Solana wallet (Phantom recommended);
3. Select events in the "Prediction Market" section;
4. Bet directly using your margin account without additional transfers;
5. Before the event ends, you can sell your position to lock in profits or losses, or wait for automatic settlement.

Limitless: An On-Chain CLOB Prediction Market Experiment

If Polymarket represents "front-end integration" and Myriad focuses on "content native embedding," then TryLimitless based on the Base blockchain has chosen a path closer to CEX: implementing a complete CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) system on-chain, reshaping the trading experience of prediction markets through deep matching and high-frequency interactions.

Unlike the common AMM (Automated Market Maker) model, TryLimitless allows users to place orders, match, and cancel orders like in a CEX, with prices determined entirely by market participants, supporting market orders and limit orders. In multi-outcome events, the platform introduces Negrisk multi-directional contracts, allowing users to configure multiple Yes/No positions simultaneously and flexibly close positions before the event ends to lock in profits or losses. This interaction logic is more intuitive for high-frequency traders accustomed to using CEX while retaining the transparency and verifiability of on-chain operations.

The project officially launched in 2025, utilizing Pyth Network's decentralized oracle for instant settlement, reducing market manipulation risks, and achieving a balance between low latency and high depth through the high-performance architecture of the Base chain. As a result, TryLimitless quickly attracted the attention of high-frequency traders and strategy arbitrage users.

Additionally, TryLimitless offers hourly and daily markets covering various themes such as Bitcoin and Ethereum price fluctuations, stock trends, and macroeconomic events, with all transactions settled in USDC. Users can participate through MetaMask wallets and earn Limitless Points by placing limit orders, providing liquidity, or inviting new users.

To accelerate early user growth, TryLimitless launched the Points Program Season 1 in July 2025, running until September 22. The points program is closely related to future token rights, becoming a key mechanism for attracting users. Meanwhile, the team also released a developer API, supporting asynchronous, type-safe interfaces to facilitate the building of customized tools and trading applications. Furthermore, the team plans to hold a TGE (Token Generation Event) in the third quarter of 2025 and collaborate with projects like Wallchain for community incentives.

How to Experience Limitless:

1. Visit the Limitless official website;
2. Connect your wallet and switch to the Base network;
3. Prepare a small amount of ETH (for Gas) + USDC (to participate in predictions);
4. Select an event in the prediction market and place a market or limit order;
5. Use limit orders more frequently to earn additional points rewards.

Fliprbot: Integrating Prediction Entry into Social Conversations

In the past, participating in prediction markets meant navigating to independent websites, browsing event lists, selecting positions, and completing bets, while Flipr attempts to compress all of this into the most natural scenario: social conversations.

Flipr launched in July 2025, built on the Polymarket infrastructure, and achieved a new "conversational prediction" interaction through the trading bot Fliprbot running on X. Users simply need to tag @fliprbot or send a private message with natural language commands, such as: “Bet $50 on BTC breaking $130K by 31 Dec 2025,” to place a bet directly without navigating to an independent website or operating a complex DApp.

Fliprbot will return real-time prices, odds, and position choices for the prediction market, allowing users to click to place orders. While browsing tweets, if users encounter topics related to elections or cryptocurrency prices, they can simply retweet to Fliprbot, and the system will automatically recognize keywords and generate corresponding prediction market links, achieving a seamless connection from "information to trading."

Additionally, Fliprbot supports group chats and community embedding: group administrators can instantly create prediction markets within conversations, allowing users to bet while chatting, naturally integrating prediction functions into social interactions and lowering participation barriers.

In product design, Flipr achieves a gas-free initial experience through smart accounts provided by Privy and introduces the first leverage trading feature in prediction markets, further lowering participation barriers and attracting a broader user base. Core functions cover various events such as cryptocurrency prices, sports events, and macroeconomics, with transactions settled in USDC and deeply integrated with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

To accelerate user growth, Flipr launched the "Mindshare Mining" program on July 7, 2025, establishing a reward pool of 10 million $FLIPR tokens, distributing rewards based on users' trading volume, posting frequency, and interaction activity, incentivizing users to promote and actively trade through social media. The platform is still in the public testing phase, with features like take-profit and stop-loss, volatility protection, and ongoing optimization of interface interactions and leverage models.

How to Experience Fliprbot:

1. Search for and send a private message to @fliprbot on X;
2. Enter prediction keywords, such as “BTC > 70K”;
3. Click the returned market link to place bets directly in the chat;
4. Or tag Fliprbot in a tweet, and the bot will automatically recognize the topic and generate the corresponding prediction market.

Conclusion

From Kalshi's compliance penetration to Myriad and Flipr's social native embedding, and the exploration of on-chain efficiency by Limitless and Drift BET, prediction markets have seen multi-threaded innovations in entry points, forms, and interactions.

However, despite these projects continuously lowering user barriers and broadening application scenarios, the true incremental space for prediction markets remains untapped. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently pointed out that most current prediction markets do not pay interest, making them unattractive in hedging scenarios; participating in prediction markets means forgoing a guaranteed 4% annual return in USD. Vitalik believes that once this issue is resolved, there will be a surge of hedging applications in prediction markets, leading to further increases in trading volume.

In other words, current prediction markets are still largely in the speculation-driven and social distribution stage; in the future, when capital efficiency and risk management capabilities improve simultaneously, prediction markets may truly evolve into the infrastructure for information pricing.

Recommended Reading

《Not Just Speculation: The Product Evolution and Ecological Reconstruction of Prediction Markets in 2025》

《Prediction Markets—The Next Big Event?》

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