Key Points:
The $124,500 high for Bitcoin is unlikely to be the top of this cycle, as all 30 peak indicators remain neutral.
The recent decline shows new investors are selling off, while long-term holders are unaffected.
If it can maintain above the 20-week EMA, Bitcoin still has the potential to challenge $150,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled back from its all-time high, raising concerns in the market about whether the peak for 2025 has already been reached. However, analyst Merlijn The Trader believes that the so-called "$124,000 top" is merely "market noise."
In a post on Tuesday, Merlijn emphasized that none of the 30 widely watched bull market top signal indicators for Bitcoin are currently flashing red.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle tops typically coincide with "overheating" signals from several well-known on-chain tools.
For example, the Puell Multiple, which spikes when miners receive unsustainable high income, is currently at just 1.39, well below the dangerous zone of 2.2 seen before past price peaks.
Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value ratio Z-score), which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's price and actual capital inflows, is also in a neutral range and has not reached the overheating extremes seen at previous tops.
On-chain data indicates that we are currently in a typical sell-off phase, further supporting a bullish outlook.
According to data shared by analyst CrazzyBlockk, the latest investors holding Bitcoin for less than a month are experiencing an average unrealized loss of about -3.50% and are currently selling.
In contrast, the group of short-term holders (STH) who have held for one to six months are still in profit, with an overall unrealized gain of +4.50%.
CrazzyBlockk wrote, "This is a bullish structural development," and added:
On-chain analyst Amr Taha further pointed out that the market is expected to see a rebound, mainly because after Bitcoin's price fell below $111,000 on Binance, $70 million in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated.
Following this liquidation event, open interest (OI) significantly decreased. Binance's cumulative net active trading volume dropped by about $1 billion, indicating that sellers are dominating the market. Some late entrants chose to cut losses and exit.
The next batch of liquidity is primarily concentrated in the $117,000 to $118,000 range. If Bitcoin rebounds in the coming days, this range may become a price attraction point. There is limited support below until around $105,000.
"As excessive leveraged buying is cleared and open interest resets, the market structure becomes healthier," Taha wrote, adding:
On the weekly chart, this pullback for Bitcoin appears more like a typical bull market correction rather than a top signal.
Since the beginning of 2023, BTC has experienced multiple deep pullbacks of 20%–30%, followed by a recovery in the upward trend.
This 12% decline is relatively mild and remains above the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA, green line) around $108,000, which has consistently provided dynamic support during this upward phase.
If it can rebound from the 20-week EMA, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the all-time high of $125,500 again. After that, the price may continue to push towards $150,000 or even higher by the end of 2025.
Conversely, if it falls below the 20-week EMA, it may further dip towards the 50-week EMA (red line) around $95,300. This support level has often served as a temporary bottom for Bitcoin during past bull market corrections.
Related: Even with BTC's decline, Bitcoin futures demand is still rising: What’s behind it?
Original: “Is $124,000 the top? Bitcoin (BTC) price peak signals tell a different story”
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