In the 184th session of the Uweb live class, host Yu Jianing engaged in an in-depth discussion with guest Staker, co-founder of ABC Alpha, on the theme "With both coins and stocks rising, does ETH have a chance to double again?" This session's content is divided into three parts: analysis of He Shaofeng's weekly report, external sharing, and student insights, combining on-chain data, capital flow, and macro background to comprehensively analyze the trends and trading strategies in the crypto market, providing investors with insights and practical advice. Below is a detailed summary of this session's content.
Part One: Analysis of He Shaofeng's Weekly Report — On-Chain Data and Market Trend Insights
1. Holder Behavior and Chip Distribution
He Shaofeng's weekly report reveals the current chip distribution and investor behavior in the crypto market through on-chain data analysis. Long-term holders (investors holding BTC for more than 155 days) possess about 14.5 million BTC, accounting for 61.5% of the circulating total, indicating that market chips are highly concentrated among long-term investors, reflecting strong holding confidence. Short-term holders (holding time less than 155 days) hold about 2.5 million BTC, a low proportion, suggesting insufficient market activity. Compared to the previous bull market accumulation period (a total of 770,000 BTC), the current distribution period has only realized 216,000 BTC, merely 1/4 of the accumulated amount. This indicates that market makers have not yet distributed chips on a large scale, and the bull market cycle is far from over, with further upward potential remaining in the market.
From a price support perspective, the UTXO energy band analysis shows that $110,000 is a key support level for BTC, akin to "heavy rocks on the edge of a cliff." Historical data indicates that this price level has repeatedly triggered bottom-fishing demand, demonstrating strong support. If the price falls below $110,000, it may trigger severe market sentiment fluctuations, even suggesting a potential end to the bull market cycle. However, current on-chain data indicates that this support level is solid, with a low probability of a short-term breach. The stable holdings of long-term holders provide bottom support for the market, while the low participation of short-term holders limits the risk of overheating.
2. Funding Rates and Market Sentiment
The funding rate heatmap shows that the long and short forces in the BTC and ETH contract markets are basically balanced, with an annualized funding rate of about 50%, far below overheating levels (over 100%). This indicates that market sentiment has not yet entered an extreme frenzy (FOMO) stage, and the process of market makers distributing chips is hindered, with limited capacity for retail investors to absorb. The current low funding rate reflects insufficient bullish sentiment, making it difficult to support a significant rise in the short term. Combined with the liquidity pulse chart, the total market value of stablecoins is about $240 billion, with the issuance momentum slowing down, indicating a weakening demand for stablecoins, further confirming liquidity fatigue. This provides a logical basis for a short-term market correction but also leaves room for subsequent upward momentum.
3. On-Chain Profitability Trends
On-chain profitability trend analysis indicates that the total profit realization in the market continues to decrease, with the profit space for short-term holders approaching the cost line, and the trend shifting from rising to a slow decline. If it falls below the cost line, it may trigger stop-loss selling from short-term holders, leading to a risk of sharp declines. Although the profit space for long-term holders is still higher than historical peaks, the enthusiasm of short-term speculators has declined, and the chip structure is not healthy, leading to a contraction in market activity. This trend suggests that the market needs to clear floating chips through sideways movement or corrections to accumulate momentum for the next major upward wave.
4. Off-Chain Data and Macro Background
In terms of off-chain data, BTC spot ETFs have recently turned into net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.178 billion, indicating that American investors (especially large funds in the U.S.) hold a pessimistic view of BTC in the short term. The sentiment index has fallen to 46, reflecting a cooling of overall market sentiment. However, the macro background provides potential support for the market. Poly Market data shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in September has risen to 84%, and recent dovish signals from Powell further confirm expectations of easing policies. Against this backdrop, the $110,000 BTC support level is unlikely to be breached in the short term unless a significant negative event occurs. The favorable macro environment provides external conditions for a mid-term rise in the crypto market, but short-term outflow pressures still need to be monitored.
External Sharing — Yu Jianing and Staker Analyze Opportunities in ETH and Meme Coins
1. ETH Price Targets and Upward Logic
Guest Staker analyzed Ethereum (ETH) performance in the current market cycle, believing its upward logic is similar to Bitcoin (BTC) but is in a "mid-term adjustment" phase. The current ETH price is between $4,800 and $4,900, close to the previous bull market peak, with the rise mainly driven by capital overflow from the BTC market and the linkage between coins and stocks. On-chain data shows that the activity level of ETH's mainnet transactions is low, with gas fees remaining below $1 for a long time, indicating insufficient user activity. However, capital inflows (such as treasury companies like BitMine buying coins through stock sales) have driven prices up rapidly. Compared to BTC's doubling from $69,000 to over $120,000 in this round, ETH's rise has lagged, indicating potential for catch-up.
Based on the historical ETH/BTC exchange rate, if BTC reaches $120,000, ETH could correspond to $18,000. The short-term target price is $7,000 to $8,000, with long-term potential for doubling (over $10,000), supported by continuous accumulation by treasury companies, increased staking, and the stability of the ETH ecosystem. The macro environment (such as expectations of interest rate cuts in September) further enhances upward momentum. However, in the short term, the selling pressure from long-term holders (HODLers) may lead to consolidation, necessitating close monitoring of on-chain data and changes in market sentiment.
2. Risks of Coin-Stock Linkage
The coin-stock linkage (such as treasury companies like BitMine buying coins through stock sales) rapidly drives up ETH prices but carries multiple risks:
Short-term Volatility Risk: Rapid increases lead to an unhealthy market, raising the likelihood of high-level consolidation or corrections (20-30%). The guest pointed out, "With several rises, there are several falls," and the diminishing premium effect (e.g., BitMine stocks still have a premium, while ShopLink no longer does) may slow capital inflows and put pressure on prices.
Liquidity and Market Choice Risk: The market favors leading companies (like BitMine, with trading volumes 2-3 times that of ShopLink), creating a "winner-takes-all" scenario. Non-leading companies have insufficient liquidity, posing higher investment risks. BitMine's premium relies on market recognition of its CX capabilities and influence; if the premium disappears, stock prices may drag down ETH.
Regulatory and Sustainability Risks: ETH treasury companies have lower leverage than BTC treasury companies (like MicroStrategy), with no short-term selling pressure, but long-term financing sustainability is questionable. If market recognition of stock premiums declines, price increases may lack strength.
Market Sentiment and Speculation Risks: ETH's rise depends on capital inflows and narratives (such as the ETF craze), rather than on-chain ecosystem activity. Low mainnet gas fees and shrinking transaction volumes may lead to a lack of fundamental support for prices if innovation is insufficient.
Nevertheless, the coin-stock linkage has increased ETH's exposure and consensus, attracting traditional capital (such as U.S. stock funds indirectly investing through ETH treasury companies), with long-term benefits outweighing short-term risks.
3. Opportunities in Meme Coins and Base Chain
The guest holds a cautious view on the Meme coin market, believing it is in the "mid to late stage of the on-chain bear market," with trading volumes and project lifecycles significantly declining. In the past, high-quality Meme coins (like leading projects) had market trends lasting 1-2 months, reaching a market cap of $50 million, while now the cycle has shortened to 1-2 weeks, with market caps of $30-40 million, and frequency and enthusiasm have declined due to excessive "plundering" of user funds in the early stages, requiring time for the market to regain enthusiasm.
Opportunity Analysis:
Base Chain AI + GameFi: Base Chain is the main battleground for the combination of Meme coins and AI, with many projects developed by Coinbase-affiliated teams, having low market caps (from a few million to tens of millions of dollars), and possessing 10-20 times growth potential. The AI narrative and ecosystem activity (such as the OnChain Developer Conference) attract capital, with expectations of a rebound from late September to early October, where the AI + GameFi sector may produce "hundredfold coins." It is recommended to invest in undervalued, practical projects.
Solana and OKB Ecosystem: Solana's activity has declined, reducing opportunities for Meme coins; the OKB chain has weak infrastructure, making it difficult to support large capital in the short term, limiting Meme coin potential.
Investment Advice: This is a phase for exploration, focusing on low market cap AI + GameFi projects on Base Chain, leveraging the overflow effect of the bull market recovery. Meme coins meet the demand for "small bets for big returns," but caution is needed regarding short cycles and high volatility risks.
Student Insights — How to Operate in a High Market?
1. ETH Trading Strategies and Options Operations
Staker predicts that ETH's target price in this bull market is $7,000 to $8,000 (from November to January next year), based on the historical ETH/BTC exchange rate (if BTC reaches $120,000, ETH may reach $18,000). The current price is between $4,800 and $4,900, facing a short-term correction risk of 20-30%, expected to drop to $3,500 to $4,000, as rapid increases require a cleansing of market enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait for a correction to build positions, with a personal strategy of purchasing BitMine's November options (6x leverage, costs 10-15%), avoiding short-term volatility while capturing mid to long-term rises. The options have good liquidity, suitable for mid to long-term investors. If ETH falls below $3,500, caution is needed regarding the failure of bull market logic; if it reaches the target price, positions should be cleared by the end of November to avoid "tail events" (liquidity decreases during Christmas and the Spring Festival). Trading should be combined with the judgment of market makers' chip flow to determine the rhythm of accumulation or distribution, avoiding chasing highs.
2. Investment Opportunities in Base Chain AI Projects
Base Chain is the main battleground for the combination of AI and GameFi, currently in a dividend period, superior to Solana (where dividends are fading). Projects like CTDA (Hive Agent trading, market cap of $4 million) and A0XA (digital avatars, supported by Base) have 10-20 times potential, targeting a market cap of $200 million to $500 million. Base Chain projects have long cycles (from 1 month to several years), with many opportunities to break even and low Rag rates (due to the second-layer review mechanism). It is recommended to make small investments in low market cap, real-name team projects, focusing on expectations on Coinbase, with a rebound expected from late September to early October. The guest emphasized that the low liquidity of Base Chain forces market makers to extend cycles, reducing the risk of being cut.
3. Comparison of Meme Coins on Base Chain and Solana
Meme and AI projects on Base Chain have longer lifecycles (from 1 month to 2-3 years), making them more suitable for mid to long-term investment compared to Solana (1 day to 2 months). Solana's high liquidity leads to easy sell-offs after short-term profits, with dividends already weak. Base Chain projects (like the BID platform) benefit from Coinbase's background and mechanism optimization, outperforming Virtual, with greater upward potential. Investment should utilize GMGN tools to monitor market maker addresses, capturing early opportunities and reducing high volatility risks.
4. On-Chain Data Analysis and Trading Tools
The guest emphasized the importance of on-chain data analysis, recommending the GMGN tool to build an address database, label market maker addresses, and track chip flow (increasing holdings = rising prices, decreasing holdings = falling prices). Investment in Base Chain should be small and diversified, reviewing each transaction to accumulate data and improve win rates. ABC Alpha's Twitter provides research reports and target sharing (such as the April prediction of ETH's rebound), serving as a source of Alpha. Trading should focus on project backgrounds, practicality, and expectations on exchanges, avoiding high-risk Meme trades. The guest also shared the logic behind Base Chain's low Rag rates, attributed to the second-layer review mechanism, reducing the risk of running away.
Note: This article is a summary of the content from the 184th session of the Uweb live class, intended for learning and exchange purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make independent judgments, operate cautiously, and pay attention to risk management.
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