Key Points
Bitcoin is "approaching" the next local bottom after falling below $109,000.
The Coinbase premium has returned to positive territory, boosting expectations for a recovery in U.S. demand.
Despite the BTC price still declining, ETF fund flows unexpectedly turned positive by the close on Monday.
BTC consolidated around $110,000 at the opening of Wall Street on Tuesday, showing signs of recovery in the crypto market.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after a new round of declines, BTC price volatility has stabilized.
According to data from CoinGlass, over $700 million in cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated during this drop within the 24 hours as of the time of writing.
BTC/USD hit a low of $108,717 on the Bitstamp exchange, below the all-time high set earlier this year.
Despite market concerns about a potential retest of the $100,000 support level or even lower, some market participants still see optimistic signals.
A well-known trader from BitBull noted in their latest analysis on the X platform: "BTC is now approaching the bottom."
BitBull mentioned positive signals from the U.S. market, with the Coinbase premium index re-entering positive territory on Tuesday.
This index measures the price difference of BTC between Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT trading pairs, indicating that U.S. market demand is strengthening when the indicator turns green.
BitBull summarized: "The Coinbase Bitcoin premium turned positive during the bottoming and massive long liquidation. This indicates that the maximum pain point has arrived, and a short-term rebound is expected."
Other analysts also anticipate a rebound, with trader Mister Crypto believing that a short squeeze is imminent due to a large accumulation of short positions above $115,000 on the exchange order books.
$BTC liquidity is piling up on top. SHORT SQUEEZE INCOMING! pic.twitter.com/qYjzkozfxv
According to Cas Abbe, a contributor to the cryptocurrency quantitative analysis platform CryptoQuant, the current price action is actually quite familiar.
He noted that BTC exhibited similar behavior during the June pullback when BTC/USD fell from the historical high of $112,000 to around $98,000.
"The similarity of the BTC chart to the Q2 2025 fractal is astonishing—similar consecutive declines and a capitulation that forced the market to generally believe 'the rally is over,'" he described in comments that day.
Attached images clearly show these similarities.
Similar to previous price pullbacks, institutional fund flows have intensified the shift in market sentiment, with the analysis firm Ecoinometrics particularly focusing on the situation of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
"The macro uncertainty of the past few weeks is directly reflected in the fund flows," the firm summarized, adding that ETF outflows are "weighing on BTC prices."
However, according to data from the UK investment firm Farside Investors, ETFs still achieved nearly $220 million in positive fund inflows on Monday.
Related: Even as BTC falls, Bitcoin futures demand continues to rise: What’s behind it?
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Price and Q2 Dip Similarities ‘Uncanny,’ Coinbase Premium Index Turns Positive”
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