Life is like a vast ocean, walking over one mountain after another, crossing one river after another, it’s really just that. What truly hinders us from moving forward is not the difficult paths or obstacles in life, but the hesitation and entanglement within our own hearts. As time slowly passes, there will come a day when you look up and realize that those storms that once troubled you have long been overcome step by step.

As expected, the market has indeed rebounded after hitting a bottom. The analysis from yesterday's article was quite crucial; after the market hit the bottom, it was clear that there would be a rebound to repair the indicators. So far, we are still treating this rebound as a weak one. After the market bottomed around 108700 yesterday, it mainly consolidated during the day, and then started a recovery trend in the early hours of today. This is what we refer to as a re-emergence of short-term liquidity amidst the fluctuations, providing a clearing direction for the short-term market. As of now, the rebound has reached a high of around 112300, which aligns with our expectations from yesterday. In terms of operations, the long position at 109500 has also successfully profited, essentially capturing this rebound, reaching the clearing position of 110800-111800, which is the entry point for short positions we mentioned yesterday after waiting for the short positions to be cleared. Currently, it is slightly profitable, so overall, this bet on a short-term rebound has been quite good.

Returning to today’s market, the liquidity rebound, along with the bottoming out, has completed a clearing of the high-leverage short liquidity in the short term. This has resulted in the current liquidity distribution showing that the short-term short liquidity above is significantly less than the long liquidity. It seems that after the short positions were cleared in the short term, their enthusiasm to re-enter is not high, while the longs below are showing a tendency to chase the trend. Besides forming a strong liquidity clearing intensity around 109000, there are also some high-leverage short-term long liquidity clearings around 110000. Based on this liquidity distribution, our viewpoint from yesterday suggests that after the rebound, the market coming down again seems more likely, and the short liquidity above is only slightly gathered around 113000 in the short term. Meanwhile, regarding the spot premium, although there has been a rebound, the recovery of the premium is not strong, and with the current fluctuations, the premium has fallen back into negative territory, indicating that market funds are still not very optimistic about buying into the current market.

On the technical front, at the daily level, with the daily closing at the bottom showing a bullish candle, from a structural perspective, as we mentioned earlier, the daily chart tested the support of MA120 and then began to rebound after hitting the bottom. Under such circumstances, it indicates that the first support test is still effective. Currently, we cannot confirm whether the trend will change on the daily chart, as the recent market has shown poor persistence in rebounds, and the daily structure is still in a bearish arrangement. Although the MACD shows some convergence in volume, it is still too early to enter a bullish cycle. Therefore, if another support test occurs and can form effective support again, it is highly likely that it will be the time for a trend change.

At the four-hour level, the appearance of a rebound after hitting the bottom has given the market a certain short-term bullish sentiment. We are now in a familiar weak rebound phase. As mentioned yesterday, since the correction from the historical high, the market has generally followed a trend of weak rebounds after hitting the bottom in the four-hour cycle, followed by continued corrections to the lows on the chart. From the technical indicators, the MACD is currently just entering a bullish cycle, but due to the lack of increased rebound volume, it seems that this bullish cycle is about to end quickly. Additionally, in the previous bearish cycle of the four-hour MACD, there was an increase in volume at the lows. Generally, after the indicators are repaired, the four-hour chart is likely to continue to give a low point, and combined with the daily chart, our expectation for the upcoming market remains the same as yesterday's view: after the indicators are repaired, it will test the lows again, followed by a rebound in conjunction with the daily level.

In terms of operations, it is quite simple. Following yesterday's operational thought, we wait for the short positions to be cleared at 111800 before laying out short positions. Therefore, continue to hold the short positions in hand. For those without short positions, continue to lay out. Based on liquidity, after completing the short-term high-leverage long liquidity clearing below 111000, there may be a short rebound. However, I personally do not plan to participate in this short long; I prefer to short instead. If the market continues to rebound here, I think it would be even better. Changing the mindset might yield greater profits when shorting later. If today’s rebound reaches above 113000, we will short again.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】

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