During this period, the A-shares have become very popular, stirring not only the hearts of ordinary investors but also a group of media outlets. For instance, many media have proclaimed:

The upcoming A-shares will enter a bull market lasting for ten years.

Regarding the viewpoint that A-shares will experience a ten-year bull market, my understanding is that, from a data perspective, it means that broad market indices (such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, or CSI A500 Index) will trend upward overall in the next ten years, continuously reaching new highs.

I hold a very cautious attitude towards this viewpoint.

Generally speaking, the main factors that lead to a bull market in the stock market are two fundamental elements: one is loose liquidity, and the other is a good economic fundamental.

If the market relies on loose liquidity, the sustainability of the stock market is very fragile; once liquidity ends, the market basically peaks.

If it relies on good economic fundamentals, the sustainability of the stock market is relatively longer, as it can continue to strengthen during the stages of economic development, prosperity, and overheating.

If there is both loose liquidity and good fundamentals, the stock market will be remarkable, lasting both long and strong. The long bull market in the U.S. over the past decade can basically be classified as this type. New technology industries led by the internet and artificial intelligence have driven overall economic growth, along with relatively loose liquidity as a boost. Even in recent years, despite facing some pressure from interest rates, the resilience of the economy has continued to drive stock market growth.

Looking back at the situation of A-shares.

In recent years, the collapse of the real estate market has squeezed out a large amount of liquidity, with some flowing into the bond market, leading to a bull market in bonds; another portion has gone to banks, resulting in a significant increase in household deposits.

Now, due to various emotions, expectations, and policies, this liquidity is moving towards the stock market.

At the same time, the fundamental economic situation in our country is likely to face considerable challenges in the short term (the next two to three years).

Therefore, using this standard to assess the current A-shares, if we view this market as entering a bull market, it is evident that the driving factors of this bull market do not seem to be based on economic fundamentals, but rather are likely reliant on liquidity.

Moreover, the foundation of this current bull market is also not solid and is unlikely to last long; I estimate that a year, at most two years, would be quite considerable.

Looking ahead to the next ten years, we can also use the two factors mentioned above to make predictions.

From the perspective of liquidity, I estimate that the possibility of maintaining long-term loose conditions over the next decade is quite low. What remains is to observe the direction and trends of our country's economy over the next ten years.

In this regard, I tend to think more about the challenges and control the optimistic sentiment a bit. Following this line of thought, we can look at countries that have experienced economic crises in history (especially Japan, which began experiencing a bubble economy burst in the 1990s), examine what they went through, the problems they encountered, and how they eventually emerged from those situations, and then reflect on ourselves. This approach will be more objective and rational.

Although the environment and conditions of each country are different, I believe that no country can defy common sense and laws; all are subject to cycles.

Just like Evergrande back in the day, many people had already noticed its problems early on. This does not require profound insight; common sense is sufficient. However, the vast majority of people are still intimidated by superficial appearances and dare not maintain a calm mindset to judge based on common sense and laws.

Specifically regarding the performance of A-shares over the next ten years, I believe the likelihood of the broad indices mentioned above continuously reaching new highs is very limited, but certain sectors, industries, or even individual stocks may have the opportunity to develop independent trends.

However, for retail investors, discovering potential industries, sectors, or even individual stocks is quite challenging and not suitable for the general public.

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