El Salvador President Nayib Bukele is paying attention to related prediction markets as bets increase that the country's Bitcoin holdings will reach $1 billion by the end of the year.
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele posted on the X platform on Wednesday, noting that Kalshi prediction market data shows that betting activity on the country's Bitcoin (BTC) holdings reaching $1 billion by the end of 2025 is heating up.
"I can do something very interesting right now," Bukele stated. On the Kalshi platform, the probability of El Salvador achieving the $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November has risen from 20% to 38%.
After Bukele's post, competing platform Polymarket also launched a similar betting market, indicating a 43% probability that Bitcoin holdings will reach $1 billion by December 2025.
The Kalshi prediction market regarding El Salvador's $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been active since mid-August, with bets for "before December 2025" remaining around 24% and "before November 2025" around 18% until recent days.
After the probability rose to 38%, bets for "before November 2025" fell back to 27%, while bets for "before December 2025" remained around 35%.
While Kalshi has been tracking the probability of El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days, the competing platform Polymarket only launched a similar market after Bukele's post.
"New Polymarket market: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion in Bitcoin before…?" The platform released related information on the X platform a few hours after Bukele mentioned the Kalshi market on Thursday.
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for comments on market listing policies but had not received any responses by the time of publication.
Although Kalshi and Polymarket are capitalizing on the optimistic sentiment surrounding El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings, neither platform had previously established related betting markets for a controversial incident.
In July, El Salvador's Central Bank President Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes and Finance Minister Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina stated that El Salvador had stopped purchasing Bitcoin after signing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024.
Despite these statements being part of El Salvador's official communication with the IMF, Bukele and the El Salvador Bitcoin Office continue to release new information on Bitcoin purchases, with current holdings reported to be 6,282 Bitcoins ($709 million).
As of now, Juan Carlos Reyes, Chairman of El Salvador's National Digital Assets Commission, and other relevant parties have not responded to Cointelegraph's request for clarification on the controversy raised in July.
At the time of this announcement, the prediction market was heating up, with former Polymarket and Kalshi executive Toni Gemayel announcing a $15 million funding round from investors including Coinbase Ventures for the prediction market platform Clearing Company.
Related: Trump Media Technology Group to establish CRO treasury company through $6.42 billion deal with Crypto.com
Original article: “El Salvador President Bukele Responds to Kalshi Platform's $1 Billion Bitcoin (BTC) Holdings Bet”
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