Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, August 29, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning to all crypto friends ☀️ Hardcore fans check in 👍 Like to make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹
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Market Overview: As August comes to a close, we welcome the "Golden September and Silver October," with U.S. stocks and easing signals setting the tone for sentiment.
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As August draws to a close, the capital market has shifted its focus to the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Currently, we are in a policy-sensitive window where volatility risks and opportunities coexist, and every key signal could impact future trends.
First, let's look at the latest developments in the U.S. stock market — the three major indices closed positively on Thursday, showing an optimistic trend: the Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.16%, although the increase was modest, it demonstrated market resilience; the S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, further consolidating optimistic sentiment; the Nasdaq led with a 0.5% increase, showcasing the significant influence of the tech sector.
On the individual stock level, there was a clear divergence: Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell by 0.8%, likely affected by short-term profit-taking; meanwhile, Google (GOOG.O) surged by 2%, confirming the market's recognition of high-quality tech companies. For Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up by 0.14%, showing overall stability and adding a sense of steadiness to the market.
The most critical signal comes from the Federal Reserve's policy expectations! According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 86.2% (with only a 13.8% chance of maintaining the current rate); in October, the probability of maintaining the rate is only 6.7%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut at 49.1% and 44.2%, respectively. This clear easing signal not only benefits interest rate-sensitive sectors by reducing costs and increasing profits but also injects crucial liquidity support for tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market, which is worth the attention of all crypto friends.
In this unpredictable market, follow Yibo to timely grasp real-time market dynamics and seize opportunities!
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Bitcoin: Month-end volatility converges, monthly candlestick pattern becomes a key for "bull-bear" battle.
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Looking at Bitcoin's performance yesterday, it showed a "rise first, then fall" oscillation pattern: in the afternoon, it rebounded from a low of 110,803 to a high of 113,429, but the bullish momentum could not be sustained, quickly diminishing after the peak, leading to a price retreat. In the evening, it dipped to a low of 111,820 before slightly rebounding, currently trading in a narrow range around 112,400, with volatility clearly converging.
As the end of the month approaches, the final shape of Bitcoin's monthly candlestick has become the core basis for judging the "bull-bear battle" in the current market! It is important to note that the monthly candlestick carries medium to long-term trend signals, and whether it closes positively above key moving averages or negatively breaks below support levels will directly impact future market expectations. Therefore, the current oscillation and consolidation phase is particularly critical.
From the details of the market, the release of bullish forces is slow, lacking sustained capital momentum and emotional resonance, making the probability of a strong breakout in the short term relatively low. The market remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with both sides repeatedly battling at key price levels, and the trend has yet to clarify. This balanced state is likely to continue until the end of the month.
From a technical perspective, looking at the four-hour level: it shows a clear downward wave structure, with multiple key support levels breached in the previous period, indicating significant market pressure. Although there was a rebound after three consecutive bearish candles yesterday, the rebound highs continue to decline, and the volume has not been able to expand — the divergence between volume and price indicates that this rebound is more of a technical correction after a short-term oversell, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the upward movement. Whether the subsequent rebound can continue still needs further verification.
I remind all crypto friends not to blindly chase after bullish positions at this time! Currently, there is a lack of clear trend guidance, and rebounds in oscillation can easily reverse. It is advisable to wait for effective volume expansion to break through resistance levels or to adjust strategies after a clear reversal pattern forms, avoiding the risk of misjudging trends during the bull-bear tug-of-war period.
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Ethereum: Strong emergence of bearish trend, rebound followed by shorting aligns with current market conditions.
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Finally, let's look at Ethereum's performance: in the early morning yesterday, it gradually climbed from a low of 4,466, reaching a high of 4,632 before being constrained by resistance, failing to break through further, and then oscillating downwards, dipping to a low of 4,425 in the early hours, before rebounding to around 4,500 and continuing to oscillate. This trend clearly reflects that once the price reaches key resistance levels, it will face pressure and retreat. Currently, the market's bullish momentum is limited, and it remains in a consolidation pattern in the short term.
From a deeper technical analysis: at the four-hour level, the market is operating in the upper Bollinger Band area, primarily showing a three consecutive bearish candle pattern, with prices continuously declining in a stepwise manner, and continuous upper shadow lines appearing. This pattern indicates that upward pressure is continuously released, and resistance is increasingly evident, with the bearish trend strongly emerging and downward space gradually opening up, showing very strong bearish continuation. At the hourly level, the market has strongly broken through the middle Bollinger Band, which has now turned into solid support, further strengthening the foundation of the bearish trend, with bearish momentum also continuing to increase. The MACD indicator shows an overall top divergence pattern, with the golden cross pattern continuously breaking downwards, dominated by bearish candlestick charts, indicating a stepwise increase in the bearish trend, with the characteristics of bears dominating the market becoming increasingly evident.
In summary, based on the current multi-dimensional technical signals, the recommendation for Ethereum's subsequent layout is to "go with the trend" — adopting a strategy of shorting on rebounds to align with the current market trend, while strictly controlling risks to seize investment opportunities under the bearish trend.
That's all for today's morning report. Continue to follow Yibo to track real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and accurately seize trading opportunities!
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If you are feeling lost — not understanding technology, not knowing how to read the market, unsure when to enter, not knowing how to set stop losses, not understanding take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck in bottom fishing, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly failing. Instead of frequent operations, it is better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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