Key Points:
XRP is expected to close with losses in August, raising concerns about a potential continued bearish trend in September.
Losing the support at $2800 could accelerate the sell-off of XRP, with technical indicators warning of a possible 25% decline.
XRP has dropped over 22.30% in the past month, previously nearing $3660, and is expected to close with losses in August.
Will the downtrend continue into September? Let's analyze.
According to Glassnode's cost basis heatmap, XRP faces a critical test around $2800 in September.
The range of $2.81 to $2.82 is the largest supply zone, with approximately 1.71 billion XRP bought in that range. As of Friday, the price of XRP was about $2.88, slightly above that supply zone.
Falling below this price range could trigger another wave of profit-taking as holders see their gains evaporate.
The next important support level in September should be the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, around $1.73, which served as a solid bottom in early 2025.
XRP's price technical indicators also warn of potential downside risks.
On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which measures changes in trend strength, is expected to show a bearish crossover in September.
When the fast-moving blue line of the MACD falls below the slow-moving orange line, it indicates weakening momentum, typically a precursor to a price pullback.
In past XRP cycles, similar crossovers marked the beginning of 50%-60% retracements.
For example, in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025, XRP's weekly MACD showed a bearish crossover shortly after the price peaked.
All instances triggered a decline to test the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (50-week EMA; red wave).
If the MACD fractal appears again, XRP may drop to the 50-week EMA in September, around $2.17, a decline of about 25%.
This downside target has been mentioned in multiple XRP analyses and aligns with the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support line, as shown in the diagram below.
If it subsequently falls below the 50-week EMA and the $1.73 Fibonacci support line, it will confirm entry into a bear market, and the price of XRP could drop to around $1.19 near the 200-week EMA (blue wave).
This pattern was observed after the MACD bearish crossover in September 2021.
Glassnode data shows that $1.19 is close to the average buy-in cost for current holders. Although over 90% of XRP holders are still in profit, the probability of profit-taking will increase if the price continues to decline.
If the bulls can hold above the 50-week EMA, they are likely to avoid the aforementioned bearish scenario. Since July 2024, XRP has repeatedly regained momentum after finding support at the EMA, reaching multi-year highs.
Several analysts expect a similar trend to occur again, believing that XRP will rise to at least $4 in the coming months.
Related: Bitcoin whales push BTC price down to $109,500, market "wobbles" ahead of U.S. PCE data release.
Original: “Is XRP Going to Crash in September?”
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