Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Saturday, August 30, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀️ Die-hard fans check in 👍 Like to make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹
【Macroeconomic Market Environment and U.S. Stock Performance】
We are currently in the final stages of August, and the capital market is gradually entering the expected peak season of "Golden September and Silver October." Coupled with a policy-sensitive window period, market volatility is rising, and risks and opportunities are showing structural differentiation, posing a challenge to investors' decision-making systems.
From the latest trading data in the U.S. stock market, last Friday (August 29), the three major stock indices showed a differentiated adjustment pattern: the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declined by 0.2%, the S&P 500 index's decline expanded to 0.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, dragged down by the technology sector, fell by 1.15%. Although the indices were under pressure that day, all three indices maintained an upward trend on a monthly basis, laying the foundation for the upcoming peak season. However, the performance of sub-sectors showed significant differentiation, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging by 3.2% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025, reflecting short-term valuation adjustment pressure and industry prosperity divergence in the semiconductor sector, leading to intensified capital reallocation within the sector.
On the individual stock level, semiconductor industry leader Nvidia (NVDA.O) continued its recent adjustment trend, falling by 3.3% that day, with its stock price under sustained pressure prompting the market to reassess the valuation rationality of technology growth stocks and the supply-demand landscape of the industry. In contrast, Google (GOOG.O), with its robust revenue structure and business resilience, rose by 0.5% against the trend, demonstrating strong anti-drawdown characteristics during the market adjustment period, highlighting the differentiated competitiveness of companies within the technology sector.
【Overall Trend Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market】
Affected by the sentiment transmission from related capital markets and its own technical adjustment needs, the cryptocurrency market has recently shown a general downtrend, with both mainstream coins and altcoins entering an adjustment range, and the market fear and greed index has significantly risen, indicating a decline in investor risk appetite.
In terms of core coins, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both broke through key technical support levels, triggering some programmatic trading stop-loss orders, further amplifying the decline. The altcoin sector, affected by liquidity contraction, showed significant downward linkage characteristics, with volatility within the sector far exceeding that of mainstream coins, and the activity of speculative trading in the market has decreased. From a driving factor perspective, the current cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to global regulatory policy trends and macro liquidity changes, necessitating continuous tracking of major economies' regulatory framework adjustments and market sentiment turning point signals to assess subsequent trend directions.
【Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis】
1. Short-term Market Trajectory
On August 29, Bitcoin exhibited a weak oscillation and consolidation trend, with intense long-short battles. The daily price movement path was clear: in the morning, it started a downward oscillation mode from a high of $112,590, and after reaching a low of $109,354 in the afternoon, short-term buying interest led to a technical rebound, peaking at $111,436. However, the bullish momentum could not be sustained, and the price fell again. During the evening trading session, bears dominated the market, pushing the price down to a low of $107,415, followed by a slight rebound as bottom-fishing funds entered the market. As of the morning of August 30, the price fluctuated narrowly around the key level of $108,300, showing a clear convergence characteristic, with strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Technical Form and Trend Judgment
From the analysis of the 4-hour K-line chart, Bitcoin has formed a clear step-down technical pattern. Although there have been slight pullback actions after each decline, the rebound strength is weak and lacks volume support, failing to reverse the downward trend. The current market shows a bearish dominant pattern, but bulls still resist near key support levels. The market is in a phase of oscillation and adjustment, and this round of adjustment is essentially an energy accumulation process within a downward trend, which has not changed the overall weak pattern.
Considering the market structure, downward rhythm, and volume coordination, Bitcoin may have a technical correction rebound demand in the short term, but the overall downward trend has not fundamentally reversed. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to focus on shorting during rebounds, relying on key resistance levels to position short positions, while closely monitoring the effectiveness of the $107,415 support level and volume changes. If the support level is broken, caution should be exercised regarding further downward space.
【Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis】
1. Short-term Market Trajectory
On August 29, Ethereum exhibited a "high pullback - oscillation correction" trend, with bears gradually gaining dominance in the long-short power struggle: in the morning, it rose gradually from a low of $4,433, reaching a pressure level of $4,503, but failed to achieve an effective breakthrough due to selling pressure from trapped positions above, subsequently entering a phase of oscillation and decline. In the afternoon, selling pressure continued to release, with the price dropping to around $4,318. After a brief stabilization, it rebounded in the evening due to news stimuli, peaking at $4,453, but the rebound lacked sufficient volume, and the price fell again, reaching a low of $4,262. It then entered an oscillation correction range, and as of the morning of August 30, the price was narrowly consolidating around $4,360, with long and short positions temporarily in balance.
2. Technical Form and Trend Judgment
From a technical structure perspective, Ethereum has formed a clear downward trend channel on the 4-hour level, with two rebounds during this period failing to break through the upper resistance of the channel, and the rebound highs showing a gradual downward characteristic, consistent with the technical adjustment logic within a downward trend. Analyzing from the volume dimension, the trading volume during the rebound has not effectively increased, and the imbalance between volume and price indicates that bulls lack sustained offensive momentum, with the short-term market still dominated by bears.
It is important to clarify that the current rebound in Ethereum is a technical repair within a downward trend and not a trend reversal signal: on one hand, the rebound has not broken through the core resistance level of the downward trend line, and the conditions for a technical reversal are not met; on the other hand, the volume continues to shrink, failing to form effective volume accumulation, making it difficult to support a trend reversal. In summary, the current downward trend channel structure of Ethereum is solid, and the overall downward rhythm has not been interrupted. Attention should be focused on the support strength at the lower edge of the downward channel (around $4,262). If the support level is lost, it may trigger a new round of adjustments; if the support holds, it may enter a short-term oscillation and consolidation phase.
【Investment Strategy and Risk Warning】
The current market is in a phase of overlapping policy sensitivity and market adjustment, with increased correlation between the cryptocurrency market and related capital markets, and volatility remains high. Investors need to establish a rigorous risk control system to avoid blindly chasing highs and cutting losses.
It is recommended to closely track three core variables: first, the policy trends of major global economies, especially regulatory policies towards the technology sector and the cryptocurrency market; second, the valuation repair process of the U.S. stock technology sector, particularly the semiconductor industry, as its trends have a transmission effect on cryptocurrency market sentiment; third, the breakthrough situation of key support and resistance levels of core cryptocurrency coins, as technical signals are important references for short-term operations.
Relying on the real-time data monitoring and trend analysis of a professional analysis team can more accurately grasp market dynamics, capture investment opportunities in structural markets, and effectively avoid systemic risks, achieving stable operation of investment portfolios.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to stop losses, don’t understand profit-taking, randomly increase positions, get stuck while bottom-fishing, can’t hold onto profits, miss out on market opportunities… these are common problems for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to review timeliness, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily moving forward with you in the market.
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