Key Points:
Short-term Bitcoin holders are at the center of an "oversold" signal that has only appeared twice in the past year.
Both instances marked the long-term bottom for Bitcoin prices in the current bull market.
The Bitcoin RSI signals in lower time frames continue to suggest a bullish market reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a new signal that has previously only appeared at the bottoms of bull market cycles.
Frank Fetter, a quantitative analyst at investment firm Vibes Capital Management, released new findings on September 1 on the X platform, indicating a key holder capitulation event.
As BTC/USD fell to its lowest level since early July, Bitcoin speculators have reached a critical profit threshold.
The total cost basis or realized price of the short-term holder (STH) group—entities holding for no more than six months—has currently aligned with the spot price.
This level typically acts as support during Bitcoin bull market corrections, but if breached, it could lead to prolonged weakness in BTC prices.
The key metric, Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV), measures the value of held coins against the price at their last on-chain movement.
Currently, the STH group's MVRV is at the breakeven point based on the current price. However, Fetter noted that a critical "oversold" signal has emerged when incorporating the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator into the analysis.
"The short-term holders' MVRV Bollinger Bands have officially shown an oversold signal," he stated.
The Bollinger Bands themselves serve as a key price indicator, providing standard deviation levels that help observers assess the rarity of specific levels. In this case, it refers to the STH-MVRV value.
Fetter mentioned that the downward deviation of STH-MVRV has only occurred twice in the past year.
In August 2024, when the yen arbitrage trades were unwound, the STH-MVRV fell below the lower Bollinger Band standard deviation line. The same happened in April this year when U.S. trade tariffs caused BTC/USD to drop below $75,000.
After Bitcoin prices moved along the lower Bollinger Band in late August, a rebound is brewing.
According to Cointelegraph, signs that the latest pullback may be ending first appeared in the readings of the low-cycle Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the four-hour RSI began forming a bullish divergence with price over the weekend, a pattern that is still ongoing.
However, on Monday, the MVRV showed a "death cross" on the daily chart, indicating that downward pressure has not yet ended.
Related: Bitcoin returns to $110,000, but analysts say the BTC market remains "fragile"
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
