Good morning, crypto friends! I am Wang Yibo, today is September 9, 2025, Tuesday. In this ever-changing crypto space, it is crucial to track hot topics in real-time and accurately seize trading opportunities. Iron fans remember to clock in, and those who like will make big profits!
- U.S. Stock Market Dynamics Affecting the Macro Environment of the Crypto Market
The U.S. stock market closed with varying degrees of gains on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.25%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.45%. Among them, Tesla (TSLA.O) fell by 1%, while 36Kr (KRKR.O), which experienced multiple circuit breakers during the day, closed up by 92%, showing impressive performance.
From a macro perspective, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been the focus of the market. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 89.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut in October is 14.9%, a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 76.3%, and a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 8.9%. This probability distribution indicates that the market has high expectations for the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate cuts, and loose monetary policy often has a profound impact on risk asset markets, including the crypto space. Crypto friends need to closely monitor every move of the Federal Reserve, as this may trigger changes in market liquidity, which in turn affects the flow of funds and asset prices in the crypto market.
- Bitcoin Market Volatility Analysis
The Bitcoin market broke the recent stagnation on Monday, welcoming significant volatility. After a strong upward movement in the afternoon, it reached a high of around 112,850, showing strong bullish strength. However, the previous support and resistance point at 113,500 has become a critical dividing line for bulls and bears. If the price cannot effectively break through this level, the market is likely to return to a range-bound structure, with a high risk of retracement after the surge.
From a four-hour analysis, although Bitcoin has continuously closed in the green, it is clearly under pressure at the upper band, with insufficient momentum to break higher. The Bollinger Bands have not opened upward, indicating that the current market remains primarily in a consolidation phase. On the daily level, Bitcoin is within a downward channel, with the middle band forming a key resistance. Overall, the possibility of a significant bearish retracement in the future cannot be ignored, as short-term bullish momentum has clearly weakened, making it difficult to push prices further up. Investors need to cautiously assess the market direction when trading Bitcoin, paying close attention to the breakthrough situation at the key level of 113,500. If it cannot break through, consider reducing positions or adopting a short strategy during the surge; if it successfully breaks through, follow the trend for bullish positions, but also be wary of potential false breakout scenarios.
- Ethereum Market Trend Interpretation
Ethereum started to rebound from a low of 4,276 in the morning session, reaching a high of 4,381 in the evening session before facing pressure and falling back, hitting a low of 4,280 before rebounding again. Overall, Ethereum's movement has remained within a limited range, with market activity and momentum relatively weaker than Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum is oscillating in the range of 4,060 - 4,540, with these two points forming strong support and resistance levels. Due to shrinking trading volume, the short-term direction remains unclear.
There is significant resistance above Ethereum, with clear pressure visible at the 4,500 box platform during the upward movement. Given the current market conditions, there are no conditions to break through this resistance. When trading Ethereum, investors can attempt to take small long positions near the support level and consider appropriate short positions near the resistance level, but must strictly control their positions and stop losses to prevent sudden market reversals. At the same time, pay attention to changes in trading volume; if the volume can effectively increase, it may indicate a clear market direction, and investment strategies can be adjusted based on the relationship between volume and price.
In the current complex and ever-changing crypto market, all crypto friends must closely monitor macroeconomic dynamics and real-time trends in the cryptocurrency market, making cautious investment decisions. I will continue to track the latest hot topics for everyone, providing timely and effective market analysis, accompanying you on a steady investment journey in the crypto space.
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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, unsure when to enter, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to buy the dip, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to moving steadily forward in the market with you.
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