Today, we have specially invited a technical expert. Let me introduce our guest for this episode — Teacher Yaoxing!

Teacher Yaoxing is a "veteran" user of AICoin, a true industry OG, and a highly popular figure in our dynamic square. He has been navigating the industry for many years, possessing unique insights into industry trends and a keen investment sense. Whether it’s the strategies in the secondary market or the slightest movements in news, he is well-informed, and he has put in significant effort in studying K-line charts.

This time, he has come specifically to share with us, with the theme "Trends, Reversals, and Practical Operations," all packed with valuable content. Let’s get straight to the point!

First Question: Recently, BTC has been fluctuating around $110,000. What do you think about the current market rhythm and trend?

Teacher Yaoxing: I think the current trend is quite healthy, and the upward momentum hasn’t been broken. To be honest, I’ve never been fond of "rapid increases." After all these years, I’ve suffered too many losses from liquidation in the early days, and that lesson is deeply ingrained — rapid increases often hide risks, and this "three steps up, two steps down" rhythm is much more solid.

The core focus of the market right now, in my opinion, should be on Trump, to see if he can push the Federal Reserve to ease up in his own way. Once interest rates are lowered, there will be more "liquidity" in the market, and the market can gain more confidence.

However, many seasoned investors are currently on the sidelines, unlike me, who laid out a lot of positions when prices were low. From what I see, it’s not yet time to take profits and exit. If you look at the daily chart, the previous top divergence probably scared off quite a few people, but I took a look at the chip distribution K-line chart on your AICoin, and the support price is roughly around $100,000, which is like having a "safety cushion," making me feel more secure.

By the way, there’s another piece of data to keep an eye on — the capital flow of US stock ETFs. A few of my seasoned investor friends and I usually monitor this. If we notice that funds are continuously flowing out for a long time, we need to be more cautious; it could be a signal that the market is about to change. That’s about it for my views, thank you, host.

Host: Thank you, Teacher Yaoxing, for the valuable insights! The teacher mentioned the need to pay attention to news related to Trump. Everyone can frequently check our AICoin news module to see real-time updates as soon as they come out! If you want to check support levels, just use our chip distribution feature; it’s super easy to use, and even the big shots recognize it, so we can use it with more confidence!

Second Question: With frequent small-level fluctuations, how do you personally distinguish between a "local pullback" and a "true reversal"?

Teacher Yaoxing: Actually, I rarely focus on small-level charts now, but I can share my "bloody history" of liquidation from my early years regarding this question.

When I was younger, I was particularly obsessed with trading contracts, always thinking that frequent small-level fluctuations were full of profit opportunities. Every time I made a correct decision and saw the numbers in my account rise, I felt on top of the world, not only showing off to friends but also dragging everyone to study together, just to flaunt those small profits.

But looking back now, focusing solely on small-level charts has a very low margin for error — once you make a wrong directional call, especially in a one-sided uptrend or downtrend, if you stubbornly hold on without admitting defeat, the losses can be devastating. For instance, in 2020, when ETH fell below $200, I was liquidated and lost a fortune. Now seeing ETH rise to $4,600, it’s truly a case of time passing, and I feel regretful just thinking about it.

Since then, I no longer rely solely on K-line techniques to distinguish between "local pullbacks" and "true reversals." I believe the key is to look at the "big trend," which is hidden in policies and capital flows. To mention my 2020 operations again, the pandemic led to an economic downturn, and I was determined to go long. At that time, I was young and very confident, but I didn’t last until the moment of global monetary easing and ended up liquidated.

So, judging reversals and trends is not just about looking at K-lines; you need to thoroughly understand the macro fundamentals first. Once the trend is right, then looking back at the K-lines will give you more confidence. It’s like everyone often says, "Only when the wind is right can you fly higher." The same principle applies to stock and cryptocurrency trading.

Extended Question: In the absence of a change in the larger trend, where do retail investors often make misjudgments?

Teacher Yaoxing: I think the most common mistake is "operating blindly based on feelings." This flaw is truly unsuitable for most people; if your market sense is poor, it’s easy to trip up. Many people see theoretically corresponding signals and assume their judgment is 100% correct, completely unaware of trading strategies, relying solely on passion.

Over the years, I’ve summarized a few principles that I must adhere to, and I’ll share them with everyone: First, don’t blindly try to catch the bottom, and don’t stubbornly stick to one direction; be flexible. Second, always set stop-losses; when trading, think about preserving your capital first before talking about making profits. Third, don’t take on too heavy a position in contracts; leave yourself an exit route.

I basically don’t trade contracts heavily anymore. After more than a decade, I’ve seen too many ups and downs, and I’ve become increasingly "cautious." So if a bull market comes, don’t come to me for a chat; I’ll definitely advise you to stay calm and not get carried away by the market!

Final Question: In practical trading, how should stop-loss and take-profit be set to both follow the trend and avoid being shaken out?

Teacher Yaoxing: This brings us back to what I just said about "preserving capital first." I’m used to using AICoin, and the feature I love to analyze the most is the chip distribution function. It helps me understand the cost of chips from previous transactions, where the support and resistance levels are, so I have a clear idea.

For example, if you are bullish on a certain coin, when setting a stop-loss, you should set the level slightly below the cost of the dense chip area. This way, you are betting on this rise, using an "opportunity cost" that is lower than the market average cost. Even if you are wrong in your judgment, you can still control your losses.

I usually analyze from a capital perspective, and some friends prefer using Fibonacci. They find it handy, but I always feel that method is a bit "mystical," and I can’t get over that mental hurdle. I still trust the "capital cost" logic more. However, everyone can learn another tool; either study the use of Fibonacci or thoroughly understand chip distribution, and find what suits you best.

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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