Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night's short sellers really have to thank the significant cooling of the PPI. The market immediately reacted, with calls for the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates significantly, and there were even wild rumors that September could see a 300 basis point cut. It really does feel a bit crazy.

Tonight's CPI is the key. If it continues the logic from last night and delivers an absurdly low figure, it won't just be Q4; the market could even price in rate cuts for 2026 ahead of time. So, during this FOMC meeting, there’s no need to get hung up on whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points; the dot plot is what really matters.

To put it simply, inflation is cooling, and employment is weak. The market has long been signaling for help, while the Federal Reserve seems to want to play dead? Not a chance; they will ultimately be forced to cut rates more aggressively and more frequently. But the problem is, these monetary bureaucrats are also afraid of scaring the market.

If they were to cut 50 basis points all at once, would the market interpret it as a sign that the U.S. economy is really in trouble? So even if a decision has been made, they will still need to drag it out for a few days and create some smokescreens. The key is still tonight's CPI; once the results are out, it will be clear how much to cut in September.

Back to the market, Bitcoin last night managed to stay above 113K. The spot premium is still high, although it has slightly retreated. The key point is that this month-long correction channel has finally started to trend upwards. What does that mean?

In simpler terms, even if there isn't a strong bullish surge in the short term, the price has already entered a low volatility range, and the bottom has basically been established. Last night's movement directly broke through the 113K secondary supply zone and even cleared out some shorts.

As long as it can hold above 113K, a gradual push to 118K is completely feasible. This is based on volume-price distribution and the 0.618 retracement level, where shorts are densely being liquidated.

In layman's terms, as long as 113K holds, the bullish pattern remains intact. Even if there’s a spike, it cannot drop below 112.3K. The resistance levels above remain unchanged: 115.5K-116.9K-119.1K-120.3K. These levels can only be tackled one by one under favorable conditions, as the market is far from finished.

Now, let's talk about Ethereum. The two key liquidity levels I mentioned before, the upper level of 4515 and the lower level of 4206, have not been touched yet. In other words, the conditions haven't been triggered, so I’ll set my medium to long-term positions aside for now. The problem is, Ethereum has been quite weak lately, performing much worse than Bitcoin.

When last night's data came out, Bitcoin surged to 114.3K and then pulled back to 113.1K, a drop of 1%, while Ethereum shot up to 4454 and was then slammed back to 4300, a pullback of 3.4%. The difference is clear.

What’s the reason? Funds have shifted. Bitcoin is the big brother, and the market naturally gives it face. Plus, with SOL and a bunch of altcoins sucking liquidity, Ethereum has to take a back seat for now.

But don’t forget, the liquidity zone above 4515 is always a big magnet; not touching it will always leave you feeling uneasy. Similarly, 4206 follows the same logic. Simply put, whether it goes up first or down first, it will be tested.

So, I really don’t recommend trying to guess the medium to long-term direction in the 4206 to 4515 range; there’s no probability advantage. If you jump in, you’re just delivering a package. The best strategy is to wait for the market to signal itself.

In the short term, a pullback of Ethereum to 4380 to 4350 is considered normal, and it might hold around 4370. Looking upwards, we still see 4490-4515; once it surpasses 4515, it’s open space above, and the resistance becomes vague.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 115000

First Resistance Level: 114300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support: 113-113.4K

Second Support: 112300

Bitcoin has confirmed the support at 113~113.3K yesterday, so the market sentiment has improved. It is now trying to stabilize above the 120-day moving average; as long as the bottom rises a bit more, the probability of a rebound increases.

Since 113.3K has been broken, the short-term bottom can be directly adjusted to 113.5K. The upper level of 114.3K is the low point from August 25; if it breaks through here, there will need to be another surge.

But the issue is clear: tonight's CPI is the big boss. Until the data is released, it’s highly likely to just oscillate within the range. Don’t be foolish and go all in at this time; you might get instantly reversed.

The first pressure point at 114.3K is the upper shadow line from yesterday's candlestick, and it’s also a small high point. If it can consolidate here, the probability of a further upward push is very high, while also watching if it can stabilize above the 200-day moving average.

The second pressure point at 115K is purely a psychological barrier; if 114.3K is taken out, then 115K will likely be quickly reached, or even see a short-term spike.

The first support is at 113-113.4K, which is a core defense line that must be held. For short-term operations, 113.3K can be used as a defense; if it drops below this, watch out for a wave of short-term profit-taking. The second support at 112.3K is a good place to pick up chips, with moving averages waiting below.

So today’s short-term trading strategy is very clear: if it consolidates above 113.3K, it’s building strength; as long as it doesn’t break down, continue to side with the bulls. Tonight's CPI is the decisive moment; don’t make reckless moves before the announcement. Play some short-term trades and follow the intraday trend. Once the trend reverses, wait patiently for a pullback to support and look for a more comfortable entry point.

9.11 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in the 112300-113000 range, Target: 114300-115000

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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