Data collected Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, shows a neat partisan fork. On Polymarket, traders put the Democratic Party at 69% to win the House and the Republican Party at 71% to control the Senate next year.

Kalshi’s crowd echoes the theme, with Democrats at 68% for the House and Republicans at 71% for the Senate. Volumes vary—tens of thousands of dollars on Polymarket and a few hundred thousand on Kalshi—but the directional take is consistent.

Consider it a current vibes check, not a verdict. These are implied probabilities, not guarantees, and they move with headlines, fundraising, retirements, and the occasional campaign faceplant. Still, when two independent venues rhyme, it’s worth a raised eyebrow and fresh coffee, at least for now.

Zooming out to 2028, the White House heat looks like a two-name marquee. JD Vance tops the Polymarket board at 28% and Gavin Newsom follows at 22%. The midtable is a grab bag at 5%—Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Meanwhile, a 3% cluster interestingly includes President Donald Trump, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Andy Beshear. Below that, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, and Ron DeSantis hover around 2%.

The 1% club features Donald Trump Jr., JB Pritzker, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, LeBron James, Glenn Youngkin, Stephen Smith, and Tim Walz. Greg Abbott sits below 1%. It’s early. And, yes, the list reads like a group chat nobody left.

What ties it together is the market’s appetite for a split government next year and a 2028 field that’s still quite crowded and very quirky. If the pricing holds, Capitol Hill may be headed for another two-tone makeover while the presidential race waits for its heavyweight entrants to actually, you know, enter.

For now, the House leans blue, the Senate leans red, and 2028 belongs to Vance—barely.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。