The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, cryptocurrencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
BTC Daily Trend
BTC opened this week at $108,247.95, closed at $113,478.00, with a low of $111,129.61 and a high of $113,390.00, experiencing a decline of 3.41% and an increase of 2.66%, with trading volume shrinking compared to last week.
From a medium-term perspective, BTC remains in a market turmoil characterized by "interest rate cuts and revisions" and the "independence game of the Federal Reserve." In the short term, BTC's price fluctuated over the past week based on employment data and changes in industrial policies.
The overall employment data aligns with the expectation of a "mild cooling," pushing the probability of a rate cut in September to around 90%. The expectation of three rate cuts within the year has rebounded but remains low.
The SEC stated it would strengthen regulation on treasury companies acquiring cryptocurrencies through stock issuance, which has suppressed the financing activities of the current largest source of buying power in the market—treasury companies, and is one of the reasons for the market's distance.
EMC Labs maintains a cautiously optimistic attitude in the medium term. The rebalancing of market forces before and after the interest rate cut is bound to be bumpy, but the overall U.S. economy is sound, and the restart of the rate cut cycle supports the upward pricing of risk assets.
Policy, Macro Finance, and Economic Data
On September 4, the JOLTS job openings data was released first, showing a value of 8.4 million, lower than the expected 8.7 million and the previous value of 8.9 million, marking a continuous decline to a three-year low, further confirming that labor demand is cooling.
On September 5, the number of initial jobless claims for the previous week was reported at 232,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of 230,000. The number of continuing claims was 1.751 million, also slightly above the market expectation of 1.740 million. Both data points indicate a cooling job market.
On September 6, the non-farm payroll data showed that 173,000 jobs were added in August, lower than the market expectation of 180,000 and the previous value of 190,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, reaching the highest point since 2021, indicating a significant cooling in the labor market.
The mild "cooling" of employment data shows that the economy and employment are experiencing a slowdown, which solidifies the market's expectation of a rate cut in September. FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in September is close to 90%, with a small probability of a 75 basis point cut. This is a slight adjustment from last week's expectations.
As a result of this adjustment, U.S. stocks rebounded this week after two consecutive weeks of decline, with the Nasdaq rising 1.14% and the S&P 500 rising 0.33%, with all three major indices reaching historical highs during the session. Long and short-term U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, falling by 2.3% and 2.03%, respectively.
With no concerns about a rate cut, the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts are still being priced in. The U.S. dollar index, despite fluctuations, fell by 0.11% to 97.737 for the week. Gold surged by 3.52% to $3,639 per ounce.
Cryptocurrency Market
Following a significant downward adjustment last week, BTC achieved a 2.66% rebound this week, barely breaking through the "Trump bottom" (the $90,000 to $110,000 range), still under pressure from the "first upward trend line of the bull market," and remains below the 20-day moving average.
Over the past two months, BTC's attempt to initiate a "fourth wave of increase" ultimately failed, returning to the adjustment range. In addition to the impact of the interest rate cut cycle, this is also related to capital shifts and the cooling of policies.
According to eMerge Engine data, the BTC Spot ETF channel funds have weakened for several consecutive weeks, and the procurement scale of treasury companies has also significantly declined.
In terms of regulation, the SEC released its latest opinions on cryptocurrency treasury companies (DATs) this week, incorporating them into the national exchange/ATS regulatory agenda and requiring treasury companies to obtain shareholder approval before financing through diluted shares to purchase crypto assets. This new regulation will undoubtedly slow down the acquisition speed and scale of treasury companies, which the market views as a significant bearish signal, leading to a widespread decline in the stock prices of treasury companies, negatively impacting the trading prices of BTC, ETH, and others.
In addition to the cooling of industrial policies and the slowdown in capital inflows, long-term selling is also an important reason for the weakening of BTC prices. On-chain data shows that long-term holders sold over 40,000 BTC this week, significantly higher than last week.
Currently, the coin price is close to the short-term holding price, indicating that the downside risk has indeed diminished.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.375, in an upward continuation phase.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
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