Recently, some friends have asked about the four-year bull-bear cycle, so I will briefly discuss it here. The daily videos provide a clearer analysis, which you can check out. First, the global situation is very turbulent with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S.-Venezuela situation, etc., and the economy is definitely in a recession. War is merely a way to shift the crisis. You can look at the environments in which the last two world wars occurred; there is a saying that the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933 directly triggered the Second World War.
2️⃣ Currently, we are still in a rate-cutting cycle. What we need to pay more attention to is whether there will be consecutive rate cuts in the future. There are still a few more to come next year, and this rate-cutting cycle is different as it is occurring in a high-interest environment, whereas the last bull market was during a zero-interest rate situation.
3️⃣ The overall trend structure of Bitcoin has remained relatively healthy, including the previous views released by MicroStrategy, which stated that each pullback tests previous highs. This time, the support at 107,000 and whether it can rebound to create a new high is very crucial. Currently, we need to pay attention to the extent of the pullback as good news turns into bad news. Technically, the weekly level has broken below MA20 and MA60, and if the rebound cannot recover above MA60, the bull market will be declared over.
4️⃣ The year 2025 is the year before the super crypto IPO, with stablecoin issuer Circle and Bullish doubling on their first day of listing, followed by trading platform Gemini landing on NASDAQ, and mining company American Bitcoin (ABTC) surging 90% on its first day, triggering a circuit breaker. There are still many waiting in line, and during Trump's four years in office, a green light was given to cryptocurrencies, which will continue to flow in…
5️⃣ The altcoin ETF has not yet been approved, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve has not yet been implemented. The difference with the previous two bull markets is that the widespread rise will become less frequent. In altcoins, those included in institutional treasury or with ETF expectations will present significant wealth opportunities. Yi Lihua mentioned a few days ago that the law of rotation in the crypto circle has already begun, and quality altcoin seasons will definitely explode.
Bitcoin
The daily line is currently oscillating above MA60; a drop below will lead to a retest of the support at 113,500 to 112,000. From the OBV funding indicator, after the white line crosses above the yellow line, as long as the white line does not make a new low, there is a chance to continue rising. In the past two to three years, the OBV indicator has consistently followed this pattern, so we will see if this can continue this time.
In the short term, the 4-hour Bitcoin is moving sideways, and we should pay attention to whether it will form a larger head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, with the neckline pressure at 117,400. At 2 AM Beijing time on the 18th, Powell will announce the interest rate decision, and we still think it is best to wait for a pullback before entering at 110,000 to 112,000.
Support: 110,000 to 112,000
Resistance: 117,400 to 118,600 to 121,000
Ethereum
Ethereum surged to a high of 4,769 before falling for four consecutive days, which is also the third test of the lowest point of 4,424 as of the time of writing. The support below is at 4,200 and 4,060. For now, it is still oscillating within the box, which has lasted for 38 days. No one knows how much longer it will oscillate, but the overall idea has been mentioned by me a long time ago.
Support: 3,850 to 4,060 to 4,200
Resistance: 4,788 to 4,956
The U.S. dollar continues to decline, gold in London has broken through the historical high of 3,700, and silver at 42.6 is also very close to the new high of 49.7. We can soon expect news of new highs in silver.
If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate through the bull and bear markets together!!!
The article is time-sensitive and for reference only, updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Official account: BTC Trading Prince Fusu
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