Bitcoin (BTC) has established a new resistance level around $116,000, and Bitfinex analysts indicate that this situation is unlikely to change before the cryptocurrency gains new momentum.
However, two upcoming potential catalysts may help push Bitcoin's price higher.
"BTC is currently trading at the upper end of the range around $116,000, which remains a resistance level until decisively broken," Bitfinex stated in a report on Tuesday.
The report added that since Bitcoin reached its historical high of $124,100 on August 14, its momentum has weakened, and the price has been pulled below the recent cost basis of buyers who entered in the top range ($108,000 to $116,000).
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,370.
The slight rebound over the past week comes as the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants believe there is a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Market participants are divided on how Bitcoin's price will react if the Federal Reserve does announce a rate cut. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee views the Fed's first rate cut this year as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) to "rise significantly in the next three months."
However, others are more skeptical about the developments. Cryptocurrency analyst Ted expressed confidence that the Fed will cut rates but outlined in a post on X that Bitcoin could reverse after dropping to $104,000 or rebound to a new historical high after falling to $92,000.
A Fed rate cut is generally bullish for risk assets, as traditional investments like bonds and fixed deposits become less attractive to investors.
However, analysts often warn that if the market has already priced in this possibility, prices may still decline after such bullish events.
Overall, sentiment among cryptocurrency market participants is mixed, with the cryptocurrency fear and greed index showing a "neutral" score of 53 on Wednesday.
Another catalyst that market participants are watching is October 1, which marks the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025. Historically, this has been Bitcoin's best-performing quarter, with an average return of 85.42% since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex analysts noted that long-term holder confidence remains strong, as the recent sell-off (when Bitcoin fell to $107,400 on September 1) was primarily driven by investors who bought in the past six months.
"This dynamic suggests that investors who accumulated during the February to May adjustment are using the recent rebound as an opportunity to exit for profit, creating significant resistance for further upward momentum," the analysts stated.
Related: Tom Lee: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) may see "significant increases" in the next three months.
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