Powell’s Guidance in Focus as Fed Set to Kick Off Easing Cycle

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin its next easing cycle tonight with a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 4.00–4.25%.

The move has been predicted for months, shifting investor attention toward the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the trajectory of cuts through 2026.

QCP’s latest market insights reveal that markets currently price in three cuts each in 2025 and 2026. This is a scenario that balances caution with accommodative policy.

Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely parsed for clues. Persistent inflation pressures, unsettled tariff policies, and geopolitical risks may prompt a more measured tone, even as the labor market continues to show weakness.

For crypto markets, the picture remains less supportive. Since August, digital assets have underperformed equities, despite risk-on conditions in stocks and gold. Even if the Fed delivers as expected, traders may remain cautious, leaving crypto trailing broader markets in the near term.

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