Written by: Frank Corva
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
As we enter a historically bullish period for Bitcoin prices, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which could add a fiat liquidity booster to the bull market, a bull market that may end with a historic crash.
Historically, Bitcoin's price peaks about 20 months after a Bitcoin halving. The last Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, which means we might see the cycle top in December of this year.
The likelihood of this scenario is increasing, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point rate cut today, providing about $7.4 trillion in money market funds a reason to leave the sidelines and flow into assets like Bitcoin, especially now that exposure to Bitcoin is easier through instruments like spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies.
Powell also stated that there may be two more rate cuts before the end of the year, which will further reduce the returns on money market funds, potentially driving investors towards inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as higher-risk assets like technology and AI-related stocks.
This could catalyze the final phase of "melt-up," similar to the performance of tech stocks at the end of 1999 before the internet bubble burst.
Additionally, similar to the views of Henrik Zeberg and David Hunter, I believe the bull market that began at the end of 2022 is entering its final parabolic rise phase.
Using traditional financial indices as a reference, Henrik Zeberg believes the S&P 500 will break 7000 points by the end of the year, while David Hunter believes it will rise to 8000 points (or higher) in the same timeframe.
More importantly, according to macro strategist Octavio (Tavi) Costa, we may be witnessing the collapse of the 14-year support level for the dollar, which means we could see a significant weakening of the dollar in the coming months, supporting the bullish argument for inflation-resistant and risk assets.
What will happen in 2026?
Starting early next year, we will see the largest market crash across all markets since the U.S. financial market collapse in October 1929 that triggered the Great Depression.
Henrik Zeberg's reasoning includes a stagnation in the real economy, with some evidence being the number of homes on the market.
David Hunter believes we are at the tail end of a debt-driven long cycle that has lasted half a century, which will end with unprecedented deleveraging in modern history, as he shared on Coin Stories.
Other signals, such as loan payment defaults, also indicate that the real economy is sharply stagnating, which will inevitably impact the financial economy.
Bitcoin's decline is not inevitable, but the possibility is high
Even if we do not head towards a global macro crash, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price will face historic selling pressure in 2026.
That is to say, Bitcoin's price fell from nearly $69,000 at the end of 2021 to about $15,500 at the end of 2022, and from nearly $20,000 at the end of 2017 to just above $3,000 at the end of 2018.
In both cases, Bitcoin's price touched or fell below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), represented by the light blue line in the chart below.
Currently, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average is around $52,000. If Bitcoin's price experiences a parabolic rise in the coming months, it could reach a high of $65,000, after which Bitcoin's price may fall to that price point or lower at some point in 2026.
If we do see the predicted type of crash, Bitcoin's price could also fall well below that threshold.
Nevertheless, no one knows what will happen in the future, and it may be worth remembering that history does not necessarily repeat itself, but often has similarities.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
