Key Points:
Bitcoin options Delta skew has broken the 7% neutral threshold, indicating that traders are becoming cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision.
The long-short ratio of top traders and the $292 million inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs support optimistic sentiment, despite mixed signals from the BTC derivatives market.
Bitcoin (BTC) approached $117,000 on Wednesday but failed to maintain its upward momentum. Traders are weighing whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have already been priced in by the market. Additionally, speculation about potential further restrictions on AI chip sales to China has also affected market sentiment.
Are Bitcoin traders hedging ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, or are they betting on a drop in BTC to $110,000 due to increased uncertainty around AI-related demand and Nvidia's (NVDA) 2.6% drop in stock price on Wednesday?
The Bitcoin options Delta skew broke the 7% neutral threshold on Wednesday, indicating that put options are trading at a premium compared to call options. While this change is not extreme, it is more common in bearish markets, contrasting with the 5% neutral level earlier this week.
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Chinese internet regulators have banned companies from purchasing specific Nvidia chips. According to the Associated Press, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated, "I am disappointed with the current situation, but there are more important issues between the U.S. and China that need to be addressed. I understand this and will remain patient."
To determine whether the rise in options skew is accompanied by increased trading activity, it is essential to focus on the premiums that market participants are actually paying. During times of panic, the put/call premium typically rises sharply, and traders actively seek hedging strategies.
The put/call ratio for BTC options on the Deribit platform is currently 71%, indicating low interest from traders in neutral to bearish positions. A level above 180% would indicate extreme panic, which was last seen on April 8, when Bitcoin's price fell below $75,000 for the first time in five months.
Data shows that despite uncertainties in the AI industry and escalating global trade tensions, there is no apocalyptic sentiment or excessive caution in the market. Overall, Bitcoin traders' sentiment mainly reflects expectations regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks following the interest rate decision, rather than market panic or overreaction.
The long-short ratio of top traders on exchanges serves as an important indicator of market sentiment, covering futures, leverage, and spot markets.
Top traders on Binance and OKX increased their long (bullish) positions on Wednesday compared to the previous day, indicating that despite mixed signals from the BTC options market, the overall market remains optimistic about Bitcoin. Institutional funds and market makers generally expect prices to rise but failed to react in time when Bitcoin dropped to $115,540.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $292 million, further enhancing traders' optimistic expectations and reinforcing hopes for BTC to rise to $120,000 and above. However, Bitcoin's ultimate trajectory still depends on whether U.S. monetary policy is trending towards easing and whether the U.S.-China tariff dispute is likely to further ease.
Related: U.S. cryptocurrency head David Sacks denies extended tenure under Elizabeth Warren's scrutiny
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