This year, cryptocurrency investors who missed out on Bitcoin may still have a chance to accumulate, as a cryptocurrency analyst predicts that Bitcoin could drop by as much as 70% in the next bear market.
However, there is a divergence among cryptocurrency analysts regarding Bitcoin's next move. Some believe the bear market is still far off, while others think it may come sooner.
"I think it could pull back 70% from any eventual historical high," Cowen said in an interview with Kyle Chasse released on Thursday, noting that previous cycle bear markets saw Bitcoin pullbacks of 94%, 87%, and about 77%.
Some Bitcoin supporters, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict that the price could reach as high as $250,000 by the end of this year, and a 70% drop would bring it down to around $75,000.
Cowen stated, "If we start to see a significant rise in the fourth quarter, it’s simple for me, well, this time is no different, I will take profits and go back to stablecoins." He added that he might wait until mid-2026 to re-enter the market.
According to CoinMarketCap data, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,010, having risen 3.41% over the past 30 days.
Cowen indicated that market participants should expect another strong rebound but should not underestimate how quickly it could peak.
"Clearly, investors hope we will consolidate and enter the final rebound at the market cycle top," he said, adding that this should be the base case.
"But if this starts to happen, remember that the top could come at any time, right? … No one will say this is the top," he said.
"If we start to see a rise, everyone will be ecstatic," he added.
Meanwhile, Cowen also expects Ethereum (ETH) to "underperform against Bitcoin" in the coming weeks but stated that it will ultimately outperform at the end of the cycle.
"Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum may outperform from now until the end," Cowen said.
"I expect ETH to perform poorly in October," he added. According to TradingView data, the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum's strength relative to Bitcoin, has risen 8.56% over the past 30 days.
Some Bitcoin supporters believe that Bitcoin's price will still follow its typical four-year cycle, while others are uncertain.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated, "I bet 2026 will be a year of growth." "I generally think we will have a few good years," Hougan added.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently said, "I think Bitcoin has over a 50% chance of rising to the $140,000 to $150,000 range this year, and then we will see another bear market next year."
Meanwhile, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated in June, "Winter will not come again."
Related: Analysts expect Bitcoin (BTC) to replicate the breakout trend from May, targeting $118,000
Original article: “Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Face 70% Drawdown in Next Bear Market”
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