Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On the last day of the National Day holiday, the spot gold price historically broke through the $4,000 per ounce mark, reaching a high of $4,037. This surge is the result of multiple factors, including market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, government shutdown risks, global trade uncertainties, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a cycle of loose monetary policy. Investors flocked to gold ETFs seeking safe havens, recording the largest monthly inflow of funds in over three years in September. Billionaire Ray Dalio compared the current scenario to the high inflation and economic turmoil of the 1970s, believing that gold is a safer asset than the dollar and suggesting an allocation of about 15% in investment portfolios. Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital even recommended increasing the gold allocation to 25%.

However, views on the market outlook are not entirely consistent among Wall Street giants. Ken Griffin of Citadel Investment believes that the rise of gold and Bitcoin reflects market concerns about the dollar and is a form of "devaluation trade." Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment thinks that the U.S. stock market is on the brink of an explosive phase at the end of a bull market, planning to hold gold, cryptocurrencies, and tech stocks simultaneously before the end of the year to capture a potential surge that could be more explosive than the 1999 tech bubble. In its outlook, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price target to $4,900 by the end of 2026, but Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana warned that gold prices are nearing a cyclical peak and may enter a consolidation or correction phase in the fourth quarter. Fxempire also indicated that while the long-term outlook remains bullish, the probability of a substantial correction after a parabolic rise is significantly increasing, potentially seeking support around $3,700.

After reaching a historic high of $126,200 on October 6, Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback, but the overall upward structure remains solid. Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that the monthly futures premium for Bitcoin is in a neutral range, indicating that this round of increases is driven by actual capital inflows rather than excessive speculation, reducing the risk of a crash. Market analysts generally have a positive outlook for the future, with bullish targets pointing to $150,000 or higher by the end of the year. Specifically, analyst Mags believes that holding the $120,000 support level is key for further upward movement, with the next resistance level seen at $135,000. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that Bitcoin is building strength for a breakout above $150,000, and if there is a pullback, the $118,500 to $120,500 range is an ideal entry point. On-chain data also supports a bullish outlook, with Glassnode data showing that the cost basis model for short-term holders of Bitcoin indicates that there is still room for price increases before reaching $133,460, with higher resistance around $150,000 and key support at $113,300. The distribution of Bitcoin's cost basis shows weak support between $121,000 and $120,000, while a key support area is formed around $117,000, where approximately 190,000 BTC were purchased. Analysts from AlphaBTC and KillaXBT also pointed out short-term pullback risks, suggesting that the market may need a 15%-20% correction to test support at $117,000 or even $109,000, laying the groundwork for a larger increase in the fourth quarter.

In contrast to Bitcoin's strong breakout, Ethereum's performance appears somewhat lagging. When Bitcoin reached a new high, Ethereum failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,800 and subsequently pulled back below $4,500. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly noted that although Ethereum's increase since 2022 (15%) is far less than Bitcoin's (130%), showing a "liquidity lag," some on-chain indicators suggest it may be catching up. For example, the reserve of Ethereum on exchanges has decreased by over 25% since 2022, with net flows remaining negative, indicating a reduction in supply and decreased selling pressure. Current market signals are mixed: the spot market is experiencing net selling pressure, but the futures market remains active, showing that leveraged traders are still positioning themselves. Regarding key price levels, analyst Skew believes that if Ethereum can hold the $4,700-$4,800 range, which it has attempted to break through multiple times recently, it would be a "very bullish" signal. Biraajmaan Tamuly further analyzed that short-term liquidity may sweep around $4,400, and if a strong rebound occurs here, bullish momentum is likely to continue; however, if it fails to hold, the pullback may extend to the $4,250 to $4,100 demand area, which is seen as a key level for a potential trend reversal.

During the National Day holiday, the meme coin craze on the BNB chain became the focus, pushing the price of BNB tokens close to $1,350, setting a new historical high. According to Bubblemaps data, over 100,000 on-chain traders participated in this round of meme coin purchases, with 70% of them making a profit, including one person who made over $10 million and 40 others who made over $1 million. Several meme projects that have launched on Binance Alpha performed impressively, such as "Binance Life," which once had a market cap exceeding $400 million, with a 24-hour increase of 630%; BNB Card rose 172% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $5.64 million; PALU increased 36% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $100 million. Other projects that have not yet launched on Alpha, such as "Binance Car," "Customer Service Xiao He," and "Big Brother," also recorded significant gains. This craze also spurred the development of related ecological projects, such as the BSC meme launch platform Four, whose token FORM saw a nearly 50% increase, but subsequently experienced a price drop due to large whale deposits into exchanges.

2. Key Data (as of October 8, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $121,742 (YTD +30.04%), daily spot trading volume $78.83 billion

• Ethereum: $4,451 (YTD +33.45%), daily spot trading volume $52.35 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 55 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.13 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.3%, ETH 12.9%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, BTC, XRP, DOOD, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.56%/51.44%

• Sector performance: NFT sector down 7.58%, Meme sector down 6.47%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 179,644 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $690 million, including $183 million in BTC, $162 million in ETH, and $56.82 million in SOL.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($120,274.66), lower line ($117,892.99)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,443.12), lower line ($4,355.14)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 7)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$23.81 million, outflow after six consecutive days of net inflow

• Ethereum ETF: +$421 million, net inflow for seven consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• The UK FCA will open retail channels for cryptocurrency ETNs on October 8

• Base mainnet will undergo Optimism Superchain U16A upgrade on October 8

• Binance Alpha plans to launch SLIMEX (SLX) on October 8, Pipe Network

• The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. (October 9, 02:00)

• BiFinanceToken (BFT) will unlock approximately 22.99 million tokens on October 8, accounting for 2.3% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $15.09 million.

• Ethereum Name Service (ENS) will unlock approximately 1.46 million tokens on October 8, accounting for 1.46% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $28.75 million.

The largest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: PancakeSwap up 10.7%, Mantle up 3.8%, BNB up 3.5%, Tether Gold up 1.6%, PAX Gold up 1.5%.

5. Hot News

• Bubblemaps: Over 100,000 on-chain traders purchased new meme coins, with 70% already in profit A trader turned $3,500 into $7.9 million by trading the "Binance Life" token in three days

• A suspected IOSG Ventures address has deposited 35.6 million FORM into CEX in the past two days, valued at approximately $46.23 million

• A trader's "Binance Life" token purchased for $3,805 three days ago is now worth $6.6 million

• Meteora announces MET token economics: 48% of the supply will be in circulation at TGE

• Spot gold stands above the $4,000 mark, setting a new historical high

• The issuer of the TRUMP token, Fight Fight Fight, is raising $200 million to $1 billion to establish a digital asset financial company

• Grayscale-managed ETH spot ETFs have staked another 272,000 ETH, valued at $1.21 billion

• Unipcs spent 407,174 USDC to purchase 2.54 million BSC chain meme coins "4"

• Polymarket: Secured a $2 billion strategic investment from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange at a post-money valuation of $9 billion

• CEA Industries currently holds 480,000 BNB, valued at over $585.5 million

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