Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Despite the U.S. federal government being in a shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has urgently recalled key employees to ensure the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which seems related to the statutory process for annual Social Security cost adjustments. The report was originally scheduled for release on October 15 but is now expected to be published by the end of the month, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's important policy meeting, providing the market with crucial inflation data. Against this backdrop, institutional interest in digital assets has not diminished but rather increased. A report by State Street Bank titled "2025 Digital Asset Outlook" shows that more than half of institutional investors expect their digital asset allocation to double within the next three years, with nearly 60% planning to increase their holdings in the next year, and over 40% having established dedicated digital asset departments. Institutions generally view the potential of asset tokenization to enhance transparency, trading efficiency, and reduce compliance costs as significant, predicting that by 2030, 10% to 24% of assets in institutional portfolios will be tokenized, especially in private markets and fixed income sectors.

Bitcoin's price has continued to face selling pressure after dropping below $120,000 yesterday. Analyst "man of bitcoin" believes that as long as the price remains below $123,801, the downward pressure will persist. Trader Roman also pointed out a bearish divergence with insufficient volume and lack of momentum on higher time frames, warning that the market may test the range low of $108,000 again. Skew similarly observed that the market may be dominated by new shorts in the short term. However, Credibull Crypto analysts believe that the $108,000 to $118,000 range is a key demand area, and as long as the price does not break below the local invalidation point of $108,000, any pullback above this level is considered "reasonable." Trader "crypto chase" took the risk to increase positions after the price reclaimed $121,400, viewing it as the "last opportunity." Analyst Timo Oinonen predicts a price target of $140,000 to $150,000 for the fourth quarter based on MVRV ratio analysis. Additionally, $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire soon, with the maximum pain price at $117,000 and a put/call ratio of 1.12, indicating cautious sentiment in the options market.

Ethereum's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with on-chain activity entering a "new normal." According to CryptoQuant data, its average daily internal contract call volume has risen to over 9.5 million, thanks to regulatory clarity, institutional capital inflows, and the booming development of RWA tokenization, with the total value of the RWA sector soaring to $11.71 billion, of which Ethereum holds over 56% market share. However, well-known short-selling firm Kerrisdale Capital has questioned the business model of holding Ethereum as treasury reserves, arguing that its premium is collapsing, although the firm has made it clear that it is not shorting Ethereum itself. In terms of price analysis, The DeFi Report notes that the ETH price is currently 92% above its 200-week moving average, and based on different models, its price could range from $7,300 to $13,559, with an optimistic scenario potentially breaking $10,000. Several analysts share similar views; ash crypto believes ETH is in a strong bull market, with support at $4,240 and resistance at $5,000, potentially quickly surging above $6,000 after a breakout. Crypto Caesar believes the current pullback may be the last washout before reaching $10,000, while Jelle points out that ETH has broken out of a bullish megaphone pattern, also targeting $10,000. "Man of bitcoin" notes that the price needs to consistently break above $4,558 to confirm the end of a broader corrective pattern. Options market data shows that $940 million worth of ETH options are set to expire today at 16:00, with the maximum pain price at $4,430 and a put/call ratio of 0.9, indicating a more bullish capital flow.

Possibly stimulated by the positive news of Robinhood US going live yesterday, the ZORA token saw its price surge over 62% within 24 hours. Meanwhile, meme coins on the BSC chain remain hot, with Binance Wallet's newly launched Meme Rush mode witnessing 13 wallets profit over $1 million through trading BNBHolder tokens in less than an hour after launch. This token's market cap once soared to nearly $170 million but has since narrowed to about $40 million. Additionally, after Binance co-founder He Yi published a lengthy article titled "Come! Let's Cultivate Immortality Together!", the meme coin "Cultivation" based on this concept quickly exploded in the market, with its market cap exceeding $45 million at one point, topping the Binance Meme Rush leaderboard. Yesterday, the Ethereum Foundation announced the "Kohaku" roadmap, planning to enhance wallet privacy and security through a modular framework, with the first version presented in the form of the Ambire wallet, developed in collaboration with teams like Ambire and Railgun. Possibly influenced by this, the Railgun token RAIL broke through $5, with a 24-hour increase of over 120%, while the privacy protocol Zcash (ZEC) briefly broke above $270 before retreating, rising 50% in 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of October 10, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $121,713 (YTD +29.92%), daily spot trading volume $66.2 billion

• Ethereum: $4,366 (YTD +30.15%), daily spot trading volume $41.84 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.13 sat/vB, ETH: 0.15 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.4%, ETH 12.7%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: IN, BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.32%/51.68%

• Sector performance: L2 sector down 4.98%, CeFi sector down 4.56%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 167,517 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $591 million, including $163 million in BTC, $153 million in ETH, and $35.638 million in SOL.

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($121,099.48), lower line ($118,701.47)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,453.19), lower line ($4,365.01)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$198 million, continuing 9 days of net inflow

• Ethereum ETF: -$8.54 million, ending 8 days of consecutive net inflow

4. Today's Outlook

• Aster will launch the second phase of empty investment qualification inquiry on October 10 at 21:00

• Binance will remove the HOME/FDUSD, SPK/FDUSD, and USUAL/FDUSD spot trading pairs on October 10

• Binance will launch the 50th HODLer airdrop project Walrus (WAL) on October 10

• Linea (LINEA) will unlock approximately 1.08 billion tokens on October 10 at 19:00, accounting for 6.57% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $29.6 million;

• Babylon (BABY) will unlock approximately 321 million tokens on October 10 at 18:00, accounting for 24.74% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $17.4 million;

• PINGPONG (PINGPONG) will unlock approximately 518 million tokens on October 11, accounting for 1.23% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $46.17 million;

• Holoworld AI (HOLO) will unlock approximately 109 million tokens on October 11, accounting for 5.37% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $28 million.

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: Zcash up 53.8%, ChainOpera AI up 16.8%, Litecoin up 9.5%, Bittensor up 6.3%, NEAR Protocol up 4.8%.

5. Hot News

• Fanable Secures $11.5 Million Funding and Launches $COLLECT Token Mining

• He Yi: I Heard that the Future BNB Chain Will Support Other Wallets' Meme Rush Products

• Deutsche Bank: Central Banks May Include Bitcoin and Gold in Key Reserves by 2030

• Short-Selling Firm Kerrisdale Capital Announces Short Position on Ethereum Treasury Company BitMine Stock

• Monad: Airdrop Claim Portal Will Open on October 14

• A Hyperliquid Whale Suspected of Private Key Theft, Loss Exceeds $20 Million

• Suspected Galaxy Digital Wallet Deposited 6.1 Million ASTER to Binance in the Last 24 Hours, Valued at Approximately $12.08 Million

• Insiders Controlling 60% of YEPE Have Sold Some Tokens and Made $1.4 Million in Profit

• Ethereum Developers Release Kohaku Roadmap to Enhance Wallet Privacy and Security

• Public Company Leap Therapeutics Completes $58.88 Million Private Placement to Launch Digital Asset Financial Strategy

• YZi Labs-Backed Prediction Market Opinion Indicates Launch of Mainnet Points Program

• Bisheng Capital Establishes $100 Million BNB Ecosystem Special Fund, Supported by Nano Labs

• After Meme Rush Launch, 13 Wallets Profited Over $1 Million Through BNBHolder

• Ocean Protocol Foundation Exits "ASI Alliance," $OCEAN May Restart Trading

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