Yesterday, I had a one-hour meeting with my friends, mainly discussing the layout of permissionless + AI prediction markets. This track can be simply described as a binary options exchange, even simpler than binary options, while also supporting both "spot" and "contract" trading. It can be said that prediction markets are a more direct and faster platform for issuing tokens, as the logic behind each prediction is almost indistinguishable from the memes released by Pumpfun.

Among them, permissioned prediction markets are centralized exchanges, while permissionless prediction markets are DEXs. The biggest role of AI here is to determine the "fairness" coefficient and allocate liquidity. Most of my friends may not yet understand the capital-raising ability and social attributes of prediction markets. Let me give you an example: predicting whether the price of $BTC will break its historical high before November 1. What is this called in the futures market?

If we slightly modify the options to be above $150,000, between $130,000 and $140,000, between $140,000 and $150,000, between $120,000 and $130,000, and below $120,000, what are these options called in the futures market?

Moreover, in a certain sense, this thing comes with built-in leverage.

Prediction markets are still in their early stages, and no permissionless prediction market has emerged yet, but the track and opportunities are beyond doubt. This is also the biggest opportunity for exchanges in recent cycles. (I specifically chose not to discuss compliance, nor do I want to talk about compliance).

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