The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. I welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens!

The market has once again retreated to our entry position, and even I, Lao Cui, have started to question whether it is still worth going long. Over the past two days, I have been reviewing the entire process of the decline, which has indeed caused personal confusion, as it deviates from my value perception. I would also like to share some insights on value. Although the contracts have not caused losses, the losses in spot trading cannot be considered small. Some users still feel that the high position of SOL at 250 should be taken for profit and wait for the right opportunity to re-enter. There is no excuse; the reason I, Lao Cui, choose to continue holding is clearly because I did not anticipate the depth of this decline. I was mentally prepared and predicted that there would be a wave of decline, but my psychological expectations were all broken, including the support levels of heavily held SOL and Ethereum, with SOL dropping below 200 and Ethereum at 3400 not being within expectations.

Since the start of this bull market, I have basically maintained a profitable state. I have always felt that the market trend was under control, ignoring the fact that risks exist. Therefore, this decline has given me a new understanding: this is the punishment for not respecting the market, which I can accept. At the same time, we should not fight for immediate profits. If everyone shares the same thoughts as me, there is still a possibility of reaching new highs, and this position cannot be exited. From a short-term perspective, all cryptocurrencies are currently in a state of selling after a night rally, which can only indicate that the Asian market is generally bearish. Especially after the previous washout, the outflow of funds is basically in a state of panic, with BTC maintaining an outflow of 554 million in 24 hours, Ethereum 191 million, and SOL 40.58 million. These figures all indicate that the correction is far from expectations. Especially since the listing plans for small coins this year have been continuously delayed, many users inevitably have doubts about the bull market, and I, Lao Cui, will also start to question.

Adhering to the principle of being bullish, there are only two factors: one is listing, and the other is interest rate cuts. However, both of these points will be influenced by Trump's statements. Frequent short positions in the short term, combined with Trump's coin dropping by five-sixths in one day, is quite an ugly sight. Regarding the trend, it has indeed been discussed for too long. Most analysts have views that contradict mine, and there is nothing much to say about it; I can only respect that. The reasons for being bearish are extremely simple: retail investors are too concentrated, especially with SOL. Currently, among the users I have, there are still holders of SOL below 50. The current fluctuations are almost without loss for them; no matter how the market falls, they probably won't worry about breaking levels. Coupled with technical assistance, the spike on October 10 broke all indicators, and the current indicators are definitely bearish across the board. The basic linear value has no reference significance.

At the same time, I need to correct everyone's thinking; always looking at the lowest point of a breakdown is not correct. Taking Bitcoin as an example, the lowest point is at 101516, and you cannot buy at the lowest point of this spike. Everyone blames the platform for the spike, which seems malicious, and this is human nature. The value of the spike lies in the explosion of long position holders. If it is for the reference of spot users, it can only be based on the physical linear level, which is around 110,000. Therefore, the current operating price is above the low; as long as it does not break the 110,000 price, the lower shadow line will not appear as a physical entity. Thus, the reference significance for contract and spot users is different. I have previously discussed this type of viewpoint; the reference for contracts lies in one's understanding of short-term trading, while the reference for spot users is based on trends. A simple logic: the lowest price for spot users has basically no reference significance. As long as they do not exit, whether the lowest point of SOL is 140 or 170 does not cause any loss to them, while contracts will explode.

My articles have mostly focused on spot trading, which is also the reference significance for most users. Users who have been following my articles for more than half a year can achieve profits. However, I have not explained contracts much, not out of discrimination against contract users, but because I cannot guarantee that every trade will be profitable. Including my personal statements, the points I share with everyone in advance are given only when I have a high degree of confidence, which also creates a dependency for everyone. Many users encounter problems because they have been following my articles, seeing others profit continuously, and then when they just start to trust, their first trade blows up, seemingly thinking this is intentional on my part. This has also deepened misunderstandings; it is not like that. Even if everyone's profits and losses are within my grasp, I am not the founder of the platform. Even if you lose, it does not benefit me. I will not intentionally do anything to harm you, as it is of no benefit to me and there is no profit to be made.

Returning to our previous logic, if you choose to trust me, please verify your own views. CZ has previously said, do not trust others blindly, verify for yourself. I also transitioned from the securities market, so my understanding of returns differs from yours. Success is not replicable; although I accumulated initial capital through contracts, I often advise everyone not to focus on contracts. This is also because I have seen too many users using high leverage to gamble for a slim chance of survival; the essence of contracts should not be like this. You can refer to Trump's approach; even as the helmsman, with 190 million in short positions, he only leveraged the market with 20 times leverage. My approach is similar; I generally enter contracts with only one-tenth of my position, and the form of contracts is merely to ensure the profitability of spot trading, to avoid losses and maintain profits.

In summary, I won't say much more. Based on the current trend, it is highly likely that in the short term, we will see a repair of the market before further declines. There is still half a month until the interest rate cut date, and this week will not show a trend of breaking levels. The reference standard is extremely simple; just focus on the currently hottest BNB. If BNB recovers today, then other cryptocurrencies will mainly decline. If you are primarily focused on contracts, then going short is the first choice. However, my different point is that spot has already incurred losses. The definition of this loss is that the high position of 250 has not exited. Even if the current account shows a profit, it is still a loss of the profits in hand, so my approach will be more trend-oriented. Before the decline reaches the lower shadow line, I will replenish all long positions in anticipation of the next surge. Simply put, if I were primarily shorting now, I would need to double my funds to enter, which is not a cost-effective choice for me and would only amplify my risks. This is also a different choice, especially reminding contract users not to use high leverage to gamble on shorts. The current trend has a certain degree of uncertainty; if you choose to short, you must exit on the same day. If you have spot positions, just enter with 10 times leverage and keep bottom-fishing until new lows. As long as the market returns to the 250 position, you can recover the previous profit losses! For users primarily focused on contracts, after the evening recovery to a new high, you can short; as long as a new high appears, that is your entry opportunity.

Original content created by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big picture, and does not focus on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and ends up frequently trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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