According to analysts and experts, despite the significant liquidation event that occurred last week, the crypto market is still expected to welcome a bullish October, and they compared this event to other black swan events in cryptocurrency.
"After the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history, I originally expected October to be mired in a sea of red," said crypto podcast host Scott Melker on Wednesday.
However, Melker stated that the market is still holding up, "Honestly, this feels like a small miracle," and added, "I don't think we are entering a bear market."
The total market capitalization of the crypto market quickly rebounded after a sharp drop over the weekend, reclaiming $4 trillion, but then cooled slightly as Bitcoin (BTC) failed to maintain its momentum, dropping back below $111,000 on Tuesday.
Melker added that this is not a situation like in 2017 or 2021, where significant external factors impacted the market, such as "the ICO frenzy, the Chinese mining ban, or FTX."
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Cointelegraph that the road to the cycle's peak may be filled with volatility.
"Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but excessive pessimism is unfounded," he said, adding that from a medium to long-term perspective, "policy easing, easing tensions, and liquidity recovery should still be the dominant themes."
October has earned the nickname "Uptober" because Bitcoin has recorded gains in October in 10 out of the past 12 years. So far this month, it is down 0.6%, but historical trends suggest it could still turn positive by the end of the month.
Historically, Bitcoin performs strongest in the latter half of the month. In October 2024, it rose 16% after October 15, 29% in 2023, and 18% in the latter half of the month in 2020.
Melker also pointed out that gold made an epic rebound to a historical high last week, noting that there is usually a rotation of funds into Bitcoin.
The trade tariff panic that led to the weekend crash seems to be easing, with White House officials confirming that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan to meet to discuss trade issues.
"Trade conflicts are not a zero-sum game; both sides ultimately seek a larger share of the gains, indicating that the final outcome may be more moderate than current sentiment suggests," Sun stated.
Other narratives, such as the Federal Reserve further cutting interest rates this year and devaluation trades, are also driving the sentiment that a bullish October is still on track.
Related: Binance launches a $400 million plan to help traders affected by Friday's market drop
Original article: “Analysts say ‘Uptober’ is still likely to happen after last week’s major liquidation event”
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