Key Points:
If the $110,000 support level is breached, BTC faces the risk of a pullback to the $96,500-$100,000 range.
On-chain and technical patterns indicate that this is a healthy mid-cycle adjustment rather than a complete trend reversal.
The rebound momentum of BTC, after a significant drop over the weekend, showed signs of weakness on Tuesday.
This leading cryptocurrency fell 4.65% to around $110,000, in line with a decline in global stock markets, following China's imposition of restrictions on five U.S. companies linked to South Korea's largest shipbuilder and warnings of further retaliatory actions.
The $110,000 price level for BTC has repeatedly switched between resistance and support in 2025. Early price rejections triggered declines of 19%-30%, while rebounds from this area after July led to increases of 12%-15%.
Let’s analyze what levels BTC might drop to if the $110,000 support level fails.
Multiple analyses suggest that if the $110,000 support level cannot be maintained, the probability of BTC's price declining to $100,000 will significantly increase.
This includes the "giant bullish channel" emphasized by chart analyst BitBull, which shows BTC's price fluctuating within an expanding wedge.
As of Tuesday, BTC is in a pullback phase after testing the upper trend line of the wedge as a resistance level. Historically, such pullbacks typically exhaust momentum near the lower trend line of the channel, which coincides with the $100,000-$103,000 range.
This area also aligns with BTC's 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, shown as the red dashed line in the chart) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level, enhancing its credibility as a potential target area from a technical analysis perspective.
According to Glassnode's MVRV extreme deviation pricing band indicator analysis, BTC's current trading price has fallen below its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band; orange line) at around $119,000.
The MVRV extreme deviation pricing band is an on-chain model that tracks the degree of deviation between the current market price and BTC's "fair value," which is based on the price most holders paid for their BTC (i.e., realized price).
Historically, when BTC loses the +0.5σ band as support, the price often reverts to the mean band (yellow line), which is currently around $96,500.
A similar "mean reversion" phenomenon occurred during the pullback from December 2024 to April 2025, when BTC fell from the +0.5σ level (around $66,980) to the mean band (around $53,900), followed by a strong rebound.
Experts point out that this pattern suggests the current market performance may just be another cooling phase in a broader bull market cycle, a necessary reset process to clear excessive leverage and overheated valuations before the next upward move.
However, if the price falls below the mean reversion target, it could trigger bear market risks, with the next downside target around $74,000.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price returns to key levels, traders say the $150,000 target is still achievable.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Where Could Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop If $110K Support Fails?”
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