Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night's market was still nauseating, just like the night before. Midnight spikes, daytime declines, and a slight rebound at night before continuing to drop. It's already the 17th, and there's no sign of any interest rate cut expectations in the market.

According to past patterns, the interest rate cut theme should have been rehearsed between the 18th and 21st, but now it's eerily silent. Are we going to wait a few days for news like last month, only to get hit again?

What's more critical is that those financial companies that used to lead the charge are now collectively silent. Bitcoin has been sliding down like a slide, and MicroStrategy has only bought a mere 280 coins, even posting articles pretending to signal a bottom, which for a company of its size is just an ant-sized position.

Not to mention, they haven't been very active lately, not shouting or promoting their beliefs, and even the enthusiasm for recruiting new investors seems to have waned. The financial situation on the Ethereum side is also interesting; a pop-up last night said they were preparing to buy $70 million worth of Ethereum.

It sounds like a lot, but compared to their past scale of several hundred million, it's like a drop in the bucket. Retail investors can't move the market, institutions aren't stepping in, and there's no sound of ETF inflows; the market is just gasping for breath. This market isn't just struggling to rise; it's even having a hard time maintaining above 100,000.

Don't fantasize about some mysterious force saving the market; the reality is that liquidity is tightening, and that's a real chokehold. The yield on U.S. Treasuries has quietly been rising these past few days, signaling that funds are being pulled back, and risk assets need to cool off for a while.

On-chain data also looks quite strange; active addresses have slightly declined, but the amount of whales transferring to exchanges is noticeably less than on October 11, indicating that large holders aren't in a state of complete panic; they're waiting for the next directional signal.

Regarding ETFs, Invesco saw a net outflow of $11 million today, and Fidelity also slightly reduced their positions, while BlackRock remains remarkably stable, with net inflows still climbing. In simple terms, these institutions have learned their lesson; they no longer chase highs and lows but are firmly holding their positions.

Back to the market, Bitcoin's movement is also frustrating. It first spiked above the previous high, crushing the shorts, then violently reversed and wiped out the longs. In the short term, as I mentioned yesterday, the plundering has been completed, and the price is around 107K, but it will definitely break here.

The downtrend is undeniable; it's just extremely tedious. Two steps down, one step up, making people lose their judgment. In the short term, I'm looking at around 105K, which is an extension of the previous 98K support.

Here, it will hold for a few days of consolidation before continuing to probe lower. If it really breaks below 98K, we need to consider the macro view. You know, every time something is said from that side, the market has to draw lines accordingly.

Ethereum is even more heartbreaking; the foundation has been unloading continuously over the past two days. They sold 3,900 Ethereum, worth about $15 million. If the foundation is dumping, how much faith can be left?

Those so-called E-Guardians, no matter how steadfast, must also question their lives at this point. In the long run, they are truly overextending their credibility. In the next bull market, the number of people willing to heavily invest in Ethereum will likely decrease significantly, with more preferring to stick with Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum's resistance today is between 3926 and 3950, with a spike to 3988 before retreating. The key now is whether 3800 can hold; if it breaks, we need to guard against support at 3750 to 3722. In simple terms, without macro liquidity, institutions won't enter the market. Plus, with no new money coming in, any short-term rebounds are just false breakouts.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 111700

First Resistance Level: 110200

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 118100

Second Support Level: 106800

The key for Bitcoin today is whether it can stabilize above the daily 200MA, which is also the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Once it loses this level, the downward trend will be directly opened up; refer to the daily trend I mentioned above.

Currently, a small double bottom has formed at 108.1K, which is the most important support line today. As long as it doesn't break, there is still room for a rebound here; the area around the 200MA can be seen as a battleground for bulls and bears.

The short-term rebound target is first looking at 110K, at most just around this area. When it gets here, pay attention to whether it gets pushed back down. If the 200MA can't hold, the price may probe down to 106.8K.

At that time, the K-line may pull out a long lower shadow, indicating that bottom-buying has entered; as long as it can regain the 200MA, the rebound logic can continue. But if today closes with a candlestick that has an upper shadow, it indicates a failed rebound, and we need to be careful of further declines.

The first resistance at 110.2K is the main battlefield for bulls and bears today; only a volume breakout can potentially open up upward space. Don't be fooled by false breakouts; if it spikes up without volume, it's just a trap for bulls.

The second resistance at 111.7K is the previous high resistance area; if it can firmly hold above 110K, we can then assess the strength of this line and consider lightly entering long positions, but definitely with a stop-loss.

The first support at 108.1K is the neckline of the double bottom, which is very critical today. As long as it holds, it can continue to rebound. If it breaks again, there will be a wave of disappointment selling, and bottom-buying will be directly buried.

The second support at 106.8K is the last line of defense after losing the 200MA. Theoretically, there may be another short-term pullback here. For ultra-short-term trading, positions can be built in batches, but strict stop-losses must be in place.

Today's thinking is very simple; after last night's sharp drop, this wave is a false breakout. What you need to do is not fantasize about a reversal but focus on whether it can continue. If the short cycle can keep raising the lows, it indicates that the market is trying to build a bottom; conversely, if there's any sign of fatigue, you need to withdraw quickly.

Additionally, the RSI indicator has already turned upward from the bottom, indicating that the rebound momentum is indeed being released, but don't be too optimistic; this is just a technical repair, not a reversal signal.

10.17 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in batches in the range of 119300-110200, Target: 108100-106800

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. The bloggers worth paying attention to have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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