The evolution of this Bitcoin cycle is distinctly different from previous ones. As early as October 2022, when the bear market hit bottom, and after confirming the launch signal in June 2023, Bitcoin's price successfully broke through $125,000 in 2025, setting a new historical high. With the target range achieved, the market focus has shifted from "whether a bull market will start" to "when it will come to an end." Unlike earlier cycles that relied on retail investors and technical narratives, this cycle is more driven by macro liquidity and institutional capital, and its structural characteristics are determining the sustainability of future price centers.

Accelerated Market Maturation: Bitcoin Narrative Shifts from Technology to Capital Logic

After four rounds of bull and bear market cycles, Bitcoin's pricing logic has shifted from technological innovation to capital flow and macro variables. The 2011 market failed due to weak infrastructure; the 2013 and 2017 markets ended due to regulatory tightening and speculative overheating, respectively; while the peak in 2021 was driven by the Federal Reserve's exit from easing. Entering the current cycle, the market infrastructure is more robust, and the proportion of institutional holdings has increased, making prices increasingly sensitive to changes in interest rates and liquidity. Since the BIP 91 upgrade, Bitcoin has gradually established its status as "digital gold," with its volatility synchronizing with traditional financial markets.

New Capital and Policy Expectations Determine Cycle Endpoint

This cycle may peak under two scenarios: first, if the Federal Reserve turns hawkish again and global liquidity tightens; second, if new capital inflows are weak and unable to absorb early profit-taking. Short-term holders realizing prices and the 21-week moving average are seen as key risk signals; if breached, it may indicate a waning upward momentum. The continuation space for Bitcoin depends on capital availability and institutional risk appetite, rather than retail speculation.

Overall, Bitcoin is entering a mature stage centered on macro and institutional logic. The intense volatility of the fourth bull market has led the market to return from "technical narrative" to "capital reality." The height of future cycles will be jointly determined by global interest rates, liquidity, and the pace of capital inflows.

The above viewpoints are derived from Matrix on Target,contact us to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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