Since last night, the sharp decline in U.S. regional bank stocks has raised concerns in the market about potential bad debts in banks, which may be a significant factor in today's market downturn, along with the potential impact of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Two U.S. regional banks—Zions Bank and Western Alliance (WAL)—have both disclosed credit fraud cases:
- The amount involved with Zions is approximately $50–60 million.
- The amount involved with WAL is approximately $100 million.
Although the amounts are not large, the key point is that the bad debts of both banks come from the same group of borrowers—investment funds (related to Andrew Stupin and Gerald Marcil). These loans were primarily used to purchase commercial real estate debt but are suspected of being fraudulent.
This is similar to our warning on October 6 about the bankruptcy cases of two automotive industry companies, which also involved concealing debts and suspected fraudulent activities, ultimately leading to insolvency being exposed.
Both are industries that are extremely sensitive to interest rates—one in commercial real estate and the other in the automotive sector—and both have high loan default rates. U.S. interest rates have remained high for over three years, and the potential risks here are indeed significant.
As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, "the cockroach theory." "If you see one cockroach, there are likely many more." This is also a key factor in why many people are concerned; what banks are currently revealing may just be the tip of the iceberg. To add a point, the reason many large investors have withdrawn from Binance recently is also related to this. 🧐
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