The war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to come to an end, which is a significant positive for global inflation, especially in the United States. If a ceasefire is reached, the pressure on energy and food prices will be significantly alleviated. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations have once again become tense, and Trump's erratic statements have undermined market confidence, causing the Nasdaq, which was just a step away from a historical high, to turn downward. Investors are concerned that trade and tariff issues may once again drive up inflation.

However, the funding situation still shows a strong risk appetite, with technology stocks experiencing significant net inflows for four consecutive weeks, reaching $10.4 billion this week, a record high. The flow of funds indicates that the market continues to bet on AI and technology as the main theme. As long as this logic holds, $BTC is unlikely to face systemic risks. On-chain data shows a decrease in turnover rate and stable holdings, with solid support in the $104,500 to $111,000 range. Unless extreme events occur, prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating upward pattern.

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