Markets are treading water as traders await the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), now the sole major data release scheduled during the U.S. government shutdown. With most agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and Census Bureau halting their releases, this CPI print on Oct. 24 will be the only hard data the Federal Reserve has to guide policy discussions in the near term.

According to QCP’s latest market insights, economists expect a softer 0.2% monthly CPI reading, which could reinforce the “soft-landing” narrative and improve market liquidity sentiment. For bitcoin, that backdrop may sustain its upward bias, especially if real yields and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) begin to ease.

Meanwhile, geopolitical headlines continue to churn. Reports suggest a possible meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump, which could focus on easing tensions around rare-earth exports and soybean trade, both critical to global supply chains and food inflation.

Commodities have been whipsawed by the uncertainty. Gold tumbled from record highs, marking its steepest one-day drop since 2020 as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment. Silver mirrored the slide, while bitcoin briefly spiked to $114,000 before settling back near $108,000 amid choppy trading.

With volatility running high and economic visibility clouded, next week’s CPI release has become the market’s North Star, the data point that could reset expectations across risk assets, from crypto to commodities.

FAQ 🧭

• Why is the September CPI report so important?
  It’s the only major U.S. economic data release during the government shutdown, guiding markets and Fed expectations.
• What are economists expecting from the CPI data?
  Analysts forecast a modest 0.2% monthly rise, suggesting inflation may be easing.
• How could CPI impact bitcoin and other assets?
  A softer CPI could boost liquidity sentiment and support bitcoin’s bullish trend.
• What other factors are influencing markets right now?
  Geopolitical tensions, dollar strength, and commodity volatility are adding to overall market uncertainty.

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