Key Points:
The deterioration of US-China relations, the recent expansion of tariffs by US President Trump, and traders' avoidance of long leverage are putting downward pressure on BTC.
BTC may fall below $100,000, but analysts are optimistic that macroeconomic events next week will reverse the downward trend.
Data shows that the BTC market structure is struggling to find balance after last week's significant pullback, but adverse factors such as the renewed tariff war between Trump and China and the record duration of the US government shutdown are major obstacles suppressing bullish investors' willingness to open new positions in the futures market.
Since BTC fell to $107,000 on exchanges on October 10, the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds, the Coinbase premium index, and the net difference in cumulative trading volume between professional and retail investors on Coinbase (the net difference between market buys and sells) have been on a steady upward trend.
As shown in the chart below, since the sell-off on October 10, there have been significant changes in the BTC market's trading volume difference, funding rates, and open contract dynamics. US retail and institutional investors are clearly actively accumulating BTC, while Binance perpetual futures traders (red line) continue to sell aggressively.
Comparing Binance spot and its futures trading volume (third panel), the spot difference shows a positive value, while the negative difference in perpetual contracts highlights increased short positions, further confirming that selling driven by perpetual contracts is reinforcing the downward trend, while demand from spot buyers provides strong support in the $107,000 to $108,000 range.
The following chart presents another perspective on this market performance.
Regarding the potential price movement of BTC in the short term, the liquidation heatmap outlook (Binance, Bybit, BitMEX) indicates that momentum traders may chase a long liquidation cluster in the $106,300 to $104,000 range, while short positions face forced liquidation risks at $115,000.
Although prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the short term, Quinn Thompson, Chief Investment Officer of Lekker Capital, points out:
Continuing the same view, macroeconomic account Tom Capital reminds traders to "just focus on price movements," as next week is expected to provide a wealth of actionable market events.
Over the next week, you'll likely have to navigate these narratives:
- US CPI release
- Potential US government reopening
- Fed rate cut (future cuts)
- Nikkei topping at 50,000
- Gold topping
- TACO or no TACO (Trump's self-imposed 100% tariffs on China, etc.)
Or you could…
Related: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will rise to $1 million—Japan's new Prime Minister orders implementation of economic stimulus plans.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Wants to Go Up, but Trump's Tariff Policy Isn't Helping: Will the Government Implement 'TACO' Again?”
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