What destinies will be changed if the "get out of jail free card" in the hands of the U.S. President is thrown away?
According to the latest revelations from The Wall Street Journal, former U.S. President Trump signed a pardon this Thursday, rescuing Zhao Changpeng (CZ), the founder of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, from the legal constraints. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt bluntly stated: "The Biden administration's war on cryptocurrency is over!"
But has the war really stopped? Meanwhile, on the prediction market Polymarket, the odds of FTX's downfall "culprit" Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) being pardoned are also rising. The fates of these two crypto moguls are like two intertwined ropes, pulling out the complex game between the industry and politics.
1. CZ's Pardon: From Under Currents to Settled Dust
On the surface, Trump's pardon appears to be a "breaking news" signed on October 22 and announced today. However, if you carefully flip through the clues under the table, you'll find that this drama has long been in the making.
Small Moves, Big Signals: Social Media's "Comeback Announcement"
In mid-September, CZ quietly changed his social media profile from "ex@Binance" back to "@Binance." For someone who was once "permanently banned from managing Binance," this action is undoubtedly a covert announcement.
Market Sensitivity: The "Thawing" Craze of BNB
From September to October, several major U.S. crypto platforms seemed to have agreed to greenlight Binance's native token BNB.
- Kraken launched BNB leveraged trading,
- Coinbase included it in their roadmap and quickly went live,
- Robinhood also supported spot trading.
Gambler's Intuition: Polymarket's Odds Soar
On the prediction market Polymarket, the odds of CZ being pardoned soared to 64% in mid-October, and even after a slight drop, it remained around 45%, firmly sitting at the top of the "Trump 2025 Pardon List." After the news broke, BNB surged from 1083 USDT to 1160 USDT, a 6.7% increase in 24 hours. More significantly, a presidential pardon might not only wipe out the prison sentence but could also nullify the "lifetime ban from managing Binance" in the 2023 settlement agreement. This "get out of jail free card" may have more power than imagined.
But the plot does not end here; the market poses a sharper question: "If CZ can be pardoned, what about SBF?"
2. SBF's "Impossible" Odds: The Storm Behind 12%
If CZ's pardon is "unexpected yet reasonable," then the rise in SBF's odds is "far-fetched but not entirely so." On Polymarket, his pardon odds climbed from "almost zero" to 12%. This number may not be large, but it is enough to accelerate the market's heartbeat.
Compared to CZ's pardon, SBF's fate seems more elusive. However, the odds on the prediction market have quietly risen—from almost zero to 12%. Although the probability remains low, it is enough to attract attention. Nevertheless, CZ's pardon naturally sparked debates about whether SBF should receive similar treatment, with many arguing against it.
Political Game: Why is There a Possibility of SBF's Pardon?
SBF was once a "big donor" in U.S. politics, closely connected with several politicians. His donation list was a microcosm of a "political network." Despite public outrage over his actions, the possibility of a pardon has not been entirely ruled out in the complex political game. The Trump team may consider pardoning SBF as a step to restore trust in the crypto industry. After all, politics has never been a black-and-white game but a balance and exchange of interests.
Market Speculation: The Financial Logic Behind the Odds
The rise in SBF's pardon odds on Polymarket largely reflects the market's speculative psychology. Although the actual likelihood is low, if it were to happen, the returns would be enormous. This game of risk and reward is the instinct of the capital market.
Industry and Public Opposition: The Severity of Crimes is Not Comparable
However, the consensus within and outside the industry points in another direction. Industry experts claim that a four-month sentence and a 25-year sentence are fundamentally incomparable. Many have compared the severity of the two individuals' crimes, pointing out that CZ allowed illegal funds to flow through Binance, violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws, while SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering for misappropriating billions of dollars in customer funds. CZ received a four-month sentence, while SBF was sentenced to 25 years last year—the disparity in sentencing itself reflects the judicial system's starkly different characterization of the nature of the crimes.
Similarly, the founder of the crypto law firm Hodder Law stated that the severity of CZ's crimes is far less than that of SBF or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon. She emphasized: "Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ has not been accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance is a legitimate exchange, and the withdrawal function has always been normal. His 'crime' is related to compliance, not moral wrongdoing."
Trump's Statement and the Tension of Political Background
At Thursday's press conference, when discussing CZ's pardon, Trump publicly stated that he was told Zhao Changpeng's actions "aren't even considered a crime," and that he "was persecuted by the Biden administration." This statement provides a political narrative for CZ's pardon, but it clearly does not apply to SBF. After all, CZ is a major supporter of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial crypto platform, and pardoning him serves both industry significance and political interests. In contrast, SBF's political label and public image make a similar pardon narrative difficult to establish.
Summary: Odds Rise, but the Door to Reality is Hard to Open
Although the odds of SBF's pardon have risen in the market, the voices of opposition from industry experts and public opinion are much stronger. The compliance issues surrounding CZ and SBF's fraud conviction differ fundamentally in nature and impact, and the dual resistance of politics and public sentiment makes SBF's pardon more like a "sentiment lottery" of market speculation rather than a policy leak.
3. Trump's Shift: From "Enemy" to "Ally" in the Crypto Circle?
In recent years, the crypto industry in the U.S. has been like a "problem child," tightly bound by regulations on anti-money laundering and consumer protection. Trump's pardon acts like a hammer, breaking open several cracks.
Attitude Reversal: From Suppression to Embrace
"This isn't even considered a crime." Trump's statement is not a legal judgment but a political signal: the crypto industry is no longer a target but may become a partner. Pardoning CZ is both a support for the industry and a "counterattack" against Biden's policies.
Political Chips: The Crypto Circle's Discourse Power Soars
CZ's case and SBF's odds reflect the crypto industry's transition from the margins to the center stage. It is not just a technological story but a convergence of votes and capital. Whoever can capture the hearts of this group can draw more on the political map.
Global Arena: The U.S. Doesn't Want to Fall Behind
Europe's regulatory framework has taken shape, and Asia has a solid user base. If the U.S. does not loosen its grip, technology and capital may pack up and leave. Pardoning CZ is more like a declaration of "we will not give up."
Conclusion: A Pardon is a Key, but What Lies Behind the Door?
A pardon is just a key; behind the door is an unpaved road: rules to be determined, trust to be rebuilt, and innovation to be implemented. For crypto, this is not the end but the starting point for reconstruction.
CZ's freedom means "we can talk again"; SBF's odds remind us "the cost is not light." When politics places crypto under the spotlight, victory or defeat is no longer just about price but about who can pave the way: a more transparent market, more stable compliance, and better user protection.
As the smoke clears, the test begins. It is not on the pardon decree but in every new regulation, every compliant financing, and every project daring to land in the U.S.
As an investor, are you ready for a "new beginning"?
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
