In the 24 hours following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which triggered significant market volatility, the highly watched "100% Win Rate Whale" (address 0xc2a) executed a series of notable operations, demonstrating strong confidence in the future of cryptocurrency.
1. Latest Movements of the Whale: Increasing Position to $275 Million, Floating Loss of $1.6 Million
● Core Position Adjustment:
In the past 24 hours, this whale has added a 13x leveraged long position in BTC and a 10x leveraged long position in ETH, while further increasing a 10x leveraged position in SOL. As of the morning of October 30, its total position value has reached $275 million, despite currently being in a floating loss of $1.6 million.
● Specific Operation Details:
According to AiCoin data, the whale increased its 13x leveraged long position in BTC to $114 million, with an opening price of $110,123, and this position has realized a floating profit of $600,000. Meanwhile, its 10x leveraged long position in SOL is valued at approximately $110 million, but it is facing a floating loss of $2.42 million.
● Continued Bullish Intent:
Notably, the whale still has an unfilled order to increase its ETH position, indicating a firm bullish stance on the future market. Between October 29 and 30, it also restarted its Ethereum long positions in the $3,800-$3,880 range, gradually executing limit orders.
Table: Current Position Overview of the 100% Win Rate Whale (as of October 30)
Asset
Leverage Ratio
Position Value
Floating Profit/Loss
BTC
13x
$114 million
+$600,000
ETH
10x
-
-
SOL
10x
$110 million
- $2.42 million
Total
-
$275 million
- $1.6 million
Source: AiCoin, compiled by AiCoin
2. Market Impact: Whale Operations Intertwined with Federal Reserve Policies Affecting the Market
The whale's large operations, combined with macro policies, have shaped the market trends from yesterday to today, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
● Price and Trading Aspects:
Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points as expected, Powell's hawkish remarks about "December rate cuts are far from a done deal" dampened market risk appetite. This led to a collective plunge in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin dropping 2.58% to $109,900, and Ethereum falling 2.45% to $3,882. AiCoin data shows that $588 million in contracts were liquidated across the network within 24 hours, affecting 133,600 people, with long positions liquidated at $455 million and short positions at $133 million.
● On-chain Fundamentals:
The whale's continued accumulation aligns with its bullish stance, despite facing significant floating losses on its SOL position. On-chain data indicates that the whale's account has steadfastly held and increased long positions during market price pullbacks, with a total position value of $275 million, reflecting its optimism about the mid-to-long-term trends in cryptocurrency.
● Capital and Liquidity:
During the whale's liquidation operations, the buy-sell spread for the BTC/USDT trading pair on major exchanges temporarily widened to more than three times the normal market conditions, indicating the strain of large trades on market liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced it would end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, a decision that could have far-reaching implications for future market liquidity.
● Industry and Sentiment:
The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was relatively muted. After the announcement, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $112,000 before retreating, while Ethereum maintained around the $4,000 mark. This narrowing volatility suggests that the market has already priced in the rate cut expectations, indicating increasing maturity.
3. Analysis of Whale Trading Techniques: Combining High Leverage with Precise Timing
Analyzing the whale's historical operations reveals several key strategies that maintain its high win rate:
● Courage to Position Against the Trend:
When the market generally declined due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks, this whale not only refrained from reducing positions for risk aversion but also increased long positions against the trend, showcasing a unique market perspective. Such contrarian operations require strong financial backing and unwavering conviction.
● Art of Leverage Utilization:
The whale skillfully employs 13x leverage (BTC) and 10x leverage (ETH, SOL) to amplify returns while managing risk. This high-leverage strategy allows it to achieve excess returns when correctly predicting market direction, but it also increases the risk of forced liquidation.
● Incremental Position Building Strategy:
The whale uses limit orders to gradually build positions within specific price ranges, such as the ETH limit orders set in the $3,800-$3,880 range. This strategy helps lower the average holding cost and avoids overbuying at high points in one go.
● Multi-Asset Allocation:
The whale does not allocate all funds to a single asset but diversifies investments across multiple mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and SOL. This multi-asset investment portfolio helps spread risk and avoids significant losses due to large fluctuations in a single asset.
Table: Key Operation Timeline of the Whale on October 30
Time
Operation
Key Details
October 30, 02:53
Increased BTC Long Position
13x leverage, position increased to $114 million, opening price $110,123
October 30, before 07:44
Restarted ETH Long Position
Executed limit orders in the $3,800-$3,880 range
October 30, before 08:45
Increased SOL Long Position
10x leverage, position valued at approximately $110 million
All Day
Pending Orders
Still has unfilled orders to increase ETH positions
Source: AiCoin compilation
4. Market Reactions and Expert Opinions
There are significant differences in market analysts' and institutions' views regarding the whale's recent operations and future outlook:
● HyperInsight Analysis Team:
"The whale has not reduced positions amid market volatility but has steadily increased long positions, demonstrating firm confidence in the long-term value of core cryptocurrency assets. Its contrarian accumulation behavior may signal an impending market rebound."
● On-chain Data Observation Agency Onchain Lens:
"The whale's SOL position faces severe challenges, with a floating loss of $2.42 million. If the market continues to decline, it may trigger forced liquidation mechanisms, leading to a chain reaction. Investors should be wary of the dual amplification effects of high leverage in volatile markets."
● BlockBeats Market Research Team:
"The crypto market's reaction to this rate cut has been muted, indicating that the market has already priced in expectations. The whale's operations are indeed worth noting, but retail investors often experience information lag, and by the time they see the whale building positions, the best entry point may have already passed."
● PANews Analyst Opinion:
"'100% Win Rate' is a narrative label under specific market conditions, and the current floating losses on some positions reveal the fragility of high-leverage strategies. Investors should prioritize position management rather than blindly following myths."
Overall, the current market sentiment is characterized by cautious observation, with investors hoping that the whale's precise judgment can lead to a market rebound, while also worrying about the potential further declines due to macro policy uncertainties.
5. Risk Alerts and Future Dynamics Tracking
As the market enters a new round of volatility, investors need to closely monitor the following key risks and dynamics:
● High Leverage Liquidation Risk:
The whale and many followers currently hold large-scale high-leverage long positions. If the market declines further, it may trigger forced liquidation mechanisms from exchanges. Particularly, the whale's SOL position will face severe tests if prices continue to drop.
● Policy Uncertainty Risk:
Whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 71%. This policy uncertainty will continue to affect market risk appetite.
● Information Asymmetry Trap:
Retail investors face a natural time lag when monitoring whale operations on-chain, often leading them to buy in at relatively high points. When retail investors see the whale building positions, the best entry point may have already passed.
Core dynamics to closely track in the next 24-48 hours:
- Whale Position Adjustment Trends:
Pay close attention to whether the whale will continue to increase its ETH positions (whether its unfilled ETH increase orders will be executed) or choose to liquidate SOL to stop losses, as this will become an important market sentiment indicator.
- Testing Key Technical Support Levels:
Bitcoin has repeatedly tested resistance in the $110,000-$115,000 range, Ethereum is holding the psychological level of $4,000, and SOL is consolidating around $200. Whether these round numbers can form effective support will determine the short-term market direction.
Will this whale's contrarian accumulation lead the market to a dramatic rebound, or will the market further test its position's risk resistance? As the cryptocurrency market enters a new round of volatility, every position adjustment by the whale shapes the direction of market sentiment. For ordinary investors, surviving is more important than short-term profits—this may be the deepest insight the "100% Win Rate Whale" offers us.
AiCoin continues to monitor the operations of the 【100% Win Rate Whale】:
①【100% Win Rate Whale】actively reduces positions and takes profits! - AiCoin https://www.aicoin.com/article/496494.html
②【100% Win Rate Whale】adds another $41 million! - AiCoin https://www.aicoin.com/article/496232.html
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