The Last Drop of the Liquidity Vacuum Period | Rate Cuts ≠ Easing, A Real Bull Market Awaits QE Restart
Don't panic, this is the last drop of this month!
Because tomorrow—
is next month.
1️⃣ Key Data:
1) Over $1.1 billion in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours;
2) Bitcoin fell below the 200-day moving average (200 EMA);
3) Investors are worried about a repeat of the 35% drop in BTC after the Fed ended QT in 2019.
2️⃣ Reasons:
Don't be confused! The lack of a rise and the partial drop is a typical characteristic of insufficient liquidity after the 1011 crash:
The market originally expected "rate cuts + easing," but the result was only "rate cuts + waiting period," and liquidity did not immediately return, instead causing the market to fall into a wait-and-see mode and uncertainty.
Although rate cuts theoretically favor asset price increases, the market often requires clear liquidity injections to truly turn around.
Yesterday was clearly a signal from the Fed to slow down tightening, but they haven't started easing yet; on another level, the US-China meeting only resulted in trade easing, and confidence has not been restored.
Therefore, I believe we are currently in a liquidity vacuum period, and Crypto can only continue to bleed.
3️⃣ Future Outlook:
When will we see a real rise?
Since the 1011 crash, I have been asking everyone to patiently wait and hold back because I believe we need to wait for a real opportunity, and that opportunity is not far away.
A real market rally often occurs when:
Liquidity officially returns (QE restarts);
The US Dollar Index (DXY) turns downward;
Global risk appetite increases (stocks and bonds rise together).
🕰️ Expected Timing:
According to historical patterns, such liquidity switches often occur in the mid to late stages of a rate-cutting cycle. If this round of rate cuts starts in Q4 2025, then: the real "liquidity bull market" is likely to appear from the last month of 2025 to the first half of 2026.
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