On October 30, 2025, during the economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the United States and China reached several important consensus agreements, including the U.S. canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" imposed on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year, and pausing the implementation of the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. This series of outcomes injects more stability and certainty into U.S.-China economic cooperation and the world economy. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also experiencing subtle changes. Analysts point out that the cost basis of short-term, medium-term, and long-term Bitcoin holders is converging, which often indicates a near-bottom phase in a bull market. Will the easing of U.S.-China relations bring new upward momentum to the Bitcoin market, igniting a new round of bull market rebound?
- U.S.-China Economic and Trade Consultations: Multiple Consensus Injecting Stability into the Global Economy
According to the Ministry of Commerce, the U.S. and China reached several important consensus agreements during the economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, bringing positive signals to the tense U.S.-China relationship.
Tariff Suspension and Adjustment: The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" imposed on Chinese goods (including goods from Hong Kong and Macau) and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend certain tariff exclusion measures.
Export Control Suspension: The U.S. will suspend the implementation of its September 29 announced export control 50% penetration rules for one year, and China will also suspend the implementation of related export control measures announced on October 9 for one year, while studying and refining specific plans.
301 Investigation Suspension: The U.S. will suspend the implementation of its 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will correspondingly suspend countermeasures for one year.
Other Consensus: Both sides also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual business cases, and confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations. The U.S. made positive commitments in the investment field, and China will properly address issues related to TikTok.
The Ministry of Commerce stated that the results of this consultation inject more stability and certainty into U.S.-China economic cooperation and the world economy.
- Bitcoin Cost Line Approaching Bottom: Signs of Bull Market Rebound Emerging?
Against the macro backdrop of easing U.S.-China relations, the cryptocurrency market is also undergoing critical technical changes.
Convergence of Holder Costs: Analyst Murphy stated that based on the cost basis of different holder groups (short-term, medium-term, and long-term holders), the cost lines of each group have been repeatedly cycling from "expansion to contraction, then expansion, then contraction" over time. The expansion pattern represents a strong trend, while the contraction pattern indicates a weak trend. Between the expansion and contraction patterns, there will be a transitional period of "cost reversal among groups," indicating the end of a weak trend.
Contraction Pattern and Bottom Range: Currently, the cost basis lines of each group show a standard contraction pattern, and the costs among groups are converging. If BTC is still in a bull market cycle, then even if BTC is still in a weakening trend (sideways fluctuations), its price is likely getting closer to the bottom range of a phase correction.
- Federal Reserve Policy and Market Sentiment: Volatility of Risk Assets
Although the easing of U.S.-China relations brings positive news, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and market sentiment remain key factors affecting Bitcoin prices.
Quantitative Tightening Policy: CryptoQuant analyst Axel stated that gradually ending the quantitative tightening policy starting December 1 is slightly favorable for risk assets.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance: However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance regarding the December interest rate meeting and the recent 7 basis point increase in the two-year Treasury yield indicate that the market does not expect interest rates to be lowered quickly. This limits the upside potential and effectively suppresses risk appetite, leading to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices.
- The Mystery of Stagnation in the Crypto Market: Institutional Allocation and Long-Term Holdings
From the perspective of outsiders, Bitcoin is viewed similarly to tech stocks, but its predictable growth rate is not as certain as that of Nvidia and AI mega companies, leading institutions to increase their allocation to AI rather than Bitcoin.
Institutional Allocation Preferences: Bitcoin's stagnation makes it even harder for altcoins to attract outside investors. Ethereum, with the strongest fundamentals, now seems to struggle alone, while the largest market cap Bitmine, with a market cap of $13 billion, can only be considered mid-tier among thousands of U.S. stock companies.
Long-Term Holding Choices: From a long-term holding perspective, analysts would hold coins that large outside institutions might buy, such as BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL. The inclusion of ZEC and TAO in long-term holdings is also due to the reasons for purchase and holding by outside big players and institutions.
Conclusion:
The U.S.-China economic and trade consultations have reached multiple consensus agreements, injecting stability and certainty into the global economy. Against this macro positive backdrop, the convergence of costs for short-term, medium-term, and long-term Bitcoin holders suggests that prices may be approaching a phase bottom. However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the volatility of market sentiment will remain key factors influencing Bitcoin prices. Despite the current stagnation in the crypto market, the easing of U.S.-China relations and the signals of Bitcoin's cost line approaching the bottom may bring new upward momentum to the market, potentially igniting a new round of bull market rebound.
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