On November 1, 2025, the world was focused on a historic breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations: the White House announced that U.S. President Trump and China had reached a trade and economic agreement, agreeing to suspend several tariffs that had disrupted global markets this year. This significant news injected much-needed stability and certainty into the global economy. However, surprisingly, Bitcoin, which typically reacts strongly to geopolitical and macroeconomic signals, remained calm, with a price increase of less than 1%. This stands in stark contrast to the dramatic fluctuations seen in October when Trump announced tariffs on cryptocurrencies, leading to a $20 billion sell-off. What market logic lies behind Bitcoin's calm response? Is it a loss of macro sensitivity, or is there a deeper transformation in ownership structure occurring?
- U.S.-China Trade War "Ceasefire": Historic Agreement Injects Global Stability
On November 1, during talks held in South Korea, the U.S. and China finalized a trade and economic agreement, reaching several important consensus points.
Tariff Suspension and Adjustment: China will suspend new export controls on rare earth elements and issue general licenses for the transportation of rare earth elements. Beijing also committed to limiting the export of fentanyl to the U.S. and suspending all retaliatory tariffs imposed since March 4. In exchange, Washington will impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and extend existing tariff exemptions until November 2026.
White House Statement: The White House stated, "This is a tremendous victory that not only preserves America's economic strength and national security but also puts American workers, farmers, and families first."
Macroeconomic Impact: The macroeconomic research firm Kobeissi Letter described the agreement as the most substantial thaw in U.S.-China trade relations in years, noting that it could alleviate pressure on global supply chains.
- Bitcoin's "Calm" Response: Deep Changes in Ownership Structure
Despite the historic agreement between the U.S. and China, Bitcoin's response was unusually calm, prompting deep reflection among industry analysts.
Loss of Macro Sensitivity? Bitcoin typically reacts to geopolitical and macroeconomic signals, but within 24 hours of the announcement, its price increase was minimal, less than 1%.
Changes in Ownership Structure: Industry analysts suggest that the muted price response reflects deeper changes in Bitcoin's ownership structure rather than a loss of macro sensitivity.
Accelerated Selling by Long-term Holders: On-chain analyst James Check observed that, compared to previous cycles, long-term holders are selling Bitcoin at an accelerated pace. He noted that the selling pressure on Bitcoin remains substantial, with the average holding time for Bitcoin currently around 100 days, significantly up from the previous average of 30 days.
Power Transition: Check explained that this shift marks a transitional period in the market, where long-term holders are selling their holdings to patient, well-capitalized newcomers. "We are witnessing a power transition from early adventurous veterans to a new generation of traditional financial buyers who prefer a calmer environment."
- Market Liquidity and U.S. Earnings Season: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends
The current state of market liquidity and the U.S. earnings season also impact the cryptocurrency market.
Liquidity Comparison: Lin Chen, head of Deribit Asia Pacific, stated that current market liquidity is still 15%-20% lower compared to before the "1011" crash. The U.S. stock market is also experiencing a volatile earnings season, leading to a significant outflow of funds.
Impact of U.S. Stocks: Lin Chen believes that as long as U.S. stocks stabilize, liquidity will eventually spread, and there will still be opportunities by the end of the year; however, it is currently difficult to rally, and volatility remains high.
Technical Indicator Analysis: Mark Newton, an analyst at Tom Lee's fund, disagrees with the current community sentiment that "technical indicators suggest cryptocurrencies have peaked." He pointed out that the Elliott Wave structure has not shown any signs of a peak, the monthly DeMark signals are not yet in place, the mid-term trend has not been broken, and market sentiment is far from the levels that typically indicate a meaningful peak in the cryptocurrency market. Notable analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin's monthly RSI is at 66, showing a steady upward trend.
- Bitcoin's Long-term Fundamentals: Maturity and Institutionalization
Despite Bitcoin's short-term price weakness, experts continue to assert that its long-term fundamentals remain intact.
Asset Maturity: They believe that the current rotation signifies a natural evolution in Bitcoin's asset maturity—experienced traders are exiting the market, and traditional finance is beginning to play a role.
Institutionalization Process: With Wall Street giants like BlackRock launching Bitcoin spot ETFs, Bitcoin is accelerating its integration into the mainstream financial system, becoming an important component of institutional investors' asset allocation.
Conclusion:
The "ceasefire" in the U.S.-China trade war brings positive signals to the global economy, but Bitcoin's calm price response reveals deeper changes in its ownership structure. From early adventurous veterans to patient, well-capitalized new traditional financial buyers, Bitcoin's power is transitioning. Although short-term market liquidity is affected by the U.S. earnings season, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain robust. This reshaping of the Web3 landscape triggered by Wall Street's "relocation" indicates that Bitcoin is accelerating towards maturity and institutionalization, and its future trajectory deserves continued attention.
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Original Article: “U.S.-China Trade War Ceasefire: Why is Bitcoin's Price Staying Calm?”
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