Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $107,000 in early November as traders prepared for further support tests.
The price movement of Bitcoin feels familiar to bulls, as the weekend gains evaporated and liquidity declined.
Seasonal factors in November typically call for a significant rise in Bitcoin prices, but so far, there are no signs of relief.
Hopes for a US-China trade agreement supported the stock market, while cryptocurrencies failed to join the rally as Fed rate cut tensions resurfaced.
Institutional demand has reached its lowest level in seven months compared to newly mined Bitcoin supply.
Retail investors in Bitcoin are retreating, with data showing that the $110,000 price point may be difficult to maintain due to low network activity.
After the daily close, Bitcoin quickly dropped back to $107,000.
According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data, BTC/USD erased all weekend gains after traders warned of a "Sunday pump."
"To be honest, this looks like it could be one of the toughest trading weeks of Q4," trader CrypNuevo predicted in a post on X.
CrypNuevo noted that these lows coincide with the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $101,150, increasing its likelihood as a bottom target. The price revisited this area on Binance after a rapid collapse from the historical high of $126,200 in October.
"This is a very solid support, so we will see a very fierce rebound from there," he continued.
Others, including trader Daan Crypto Trades, prioritized exchange order book liquidity to achieve key nearby price targets.
"Within the weekend range, two large liquidity levels formed in the short term," he told followers on X.
Trader and analyst Mark Cullen warned that lower liquidity could be too tempting.
"$BTC looks weak, the lower liquidity slice is calling, but will we have one last push up before we see a deeper pullback in the coming days/weeks?" he inquired on X.
This could mark the beginning of the traditionally best six months of the year for the stock market, but cryptocurrencies seem unwilling to follow suit.
Bitcoin has already dropped 2% in November, adding to the woes of bulls still recovering from its worst October performance since 2018.
Data from CoinGlass shows how high the stakes are—November has averaged over a 40% increase since 2013.
Prediction markets highlight the current low sentiment among cryptocurrency market participants. Polymarket estimates that the chances of BTC/USD closing above $120,000 by the end of this month are only 33%, while the chances of it reaching $115,000 are 60%.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Fear" zone, not yet reflecting Bitcoin's recent drop to $107,000.
Last week, when this level reappeared, research platform Santiment suggested it was a key point for investor price outlooks.
"Bitcoin fell to $107,000 on Thursday, leading to a surge in $BTC price predictions below $100,000," it wrote on X, accompanied by a chart comparing predictions below $100,000 with those above $150,000.
This week, optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement took precedence over good news from the stock market, overshadowing the brewing risks of interest rate conflicts.
S&P 500 futures rose slightly as the market digested tariff reductions and the lifting of restrictions on Chinese rare earths and automotive chips.
"This is the biggest cooling so far," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in response to the plans over the weekend.
Despite concerns over US military interventions in Venezuela and Nigeria, trade remains a top priority for risk asset investors. Meanwhile, only cryptocurrencies felt the pressure as the new week began.
The collapse of Bitcoin's correlation with stocks did not help the situation. Last week, macro analyst Jordi Visser stated that only major tech stocks currently provide some anchoring for BTC price movements.
"Bitcoin moves with tech stocks. It is related to liquidity and 'risk appetite,'" he wrote in a blog post.
In the coming days, earnings from 20% of S&P 500 companies will be announced, including AMD and Palantir.
The ongoing US government shutdown means there is almost no inflation data available, with only private sector employment data unaffected.
In the background, uncertainty regarding US economic policy is increasing. The Fed is becoming increasingly hawkish, and the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2025 is no longer guaranteed.
Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 63% chance of a Fed rate cut at its next meeting in December.
In commentary, trading firm Mosaic Asset Company stated that the Fed's plan to halt quantitative tightening (QT) could provide a bullish hedge.
"This has reduced the Fed's balance sheet from nearly $9 trillion in 2022 to now $6.5 trillion," it wrote in the latest issue of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
This week, institutional demand for Bitcoin has once again come into focus, as BTC prices have underperformed relative to stocks and gold.
Data from UK investment firm Farside Investors shows that as of October 31, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced net outflows for three consecutive days.
The largest of these was the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which accounted for more than half of the total.
Now, these outflows have raised concerns as institutional demand has failed to keep pace with the daily increase in BTC supply.
This trend was noted by Charles Edwards, founder of the crypto quant digital asset fund Capriole Investments.
"For the first time in seven months, net institutional purchases have fallen below the daily mining supply," he commented next to Capriole data on Monday.
Edwards described these findings as "bad," emphasizing that the total includes ETFs.
The last time institutional demand failed to match newly mined supply was before BTC/USD reached its current local low of about $75,000 in early April.
However, as Cointelegraph reported, Visser views the progress of ETFs as part of Bitcoin's long-term maturation as a macro asset class.
"For years, there was simply no liquidity. Try selling $100 million of Bitcoin in 2015. You would crash the price. Try selling $1 billion in 2019. The same problem. The market couldn't absorb it," he argued.
Since the price dropped nearly 20% in October from its historical high, retail investors in Bitcoin have been retreating.
This is evident from the decline in active BTC addresses, as reported by on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant.
"As of early November 2024, there were about 1.18 million active addresses, while as of October 30, 2025, there were 872,000 active addresses, a decrease of 26.1%," contributor Carmelo Aleman wrote in a Quicktake blog post over the weekend.
Aleman directly linked the recent price movements to multiple large-scale liquidation events, referring to it as a "retreat" of retail investors.
"The absence of retail investors limits visible network activity and delays the natural end of the market cycle," he concluded.
Another contributor, Pelin Ay, went further, suggesting that the Bitcoin network is too far out of sync with its price. She stated that Metcalfe's Law—measuring fair prices relative to network propagation—supports this theory.
"When the NVM ratio sharply rises above 1, especially above 2, prices historically tend to fall back afterward," a Quicktake article explained.
Ay suggested that due to the "saturation" based on Metcalfe, BTC prices could next drop to $98,500.
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Original article: “Retail ‘Retreat’ to $98.5K: 5 Things to Watch for Bitcoin (BTC) This Week”
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